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Strategies & Market Trends : Ride the Tiger with CD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud Deplorable who wrote (136096)	11/9/2008 10:51:36 PM
From: Rocket Red	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 314110

I said no such thing what was in the news.Show me were I said

To: Proud Deplorable who wrote (136096)	11/10/2008 3:12:50 PM
From: E. Charters	Respond to of 314110

Easy, ralph. I don't think you get it. I even would go far as to say you know you don't get it. All kinds of people know what is in the news before it is issued. If Red knew in fact he could not aver that it was court testifiable fact in fact now could he.. that would be a real leak and result in possible prosecution if it were serious enough, now wouldn't it.. so if you know something and want to say you know in this business the best you can do is suggest it is a rumour.. and hope people don't run for the hills, as naive traders would, thinking that only "reliable" information in this society drives a stock. It has been a fact for 1000 years that only unreliable information ever drives a stock, as long as sufficient numbers of people believe it. So the whole deal is to raise the price by making the rumour sufficiently believable.. and it helps if it is true. And it helps if you do get an inside source, that it is never totally believed, only guessed at. There is another side to the trading coin. Knowing the above as most seasoned traders must, the fact that never having heard rumour one, and knowing the stock is of interest to the market, the price must therefore discount and credit all rumours that exist. And if it did not then there would have been a distinct failing of the frailties of human nature that we have learned to depend on as traders. If it were not for morons and people trying to make money in the market, there would be no market. Trading to the lowest common denominator of ethics and morality allows one to profit maximally from human venality. This effect is known as "the price is the price." AKA the effect noticed that, what is known to people who matter, is already known to the market. They are synonymous. Since Tutanhhamen, it is the price of the stock that is the most reliable indicator that someone knows something. Efficiency of the information flow you could call it. Do you at any time know more than the market? NEver, but you can know more than the market thinks it knows. In other words if you have geology on your side you can know before the market does where the thing is going. This is because 99% of the traders are not geologists, and you can know therefore even more than the man on the drill and the president. This is why astute geological traders seeing GXS at 23 million shares out, knew that coal of that thickness could only drill off perhaps 60% of the time. This meant big money bubie, in the energy dominated last year. What it means in the year to come is dicier -- but you can see that already in the price. There is another factor in that GXS does not have a lot of drilling in the bag to release. Most of that will come this winter. Wait, my friend. EC<:-}