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Politics : The Obama - Clinton Disaster -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (845)	11/10/2008 10:26:44 AM
From: DuckTapeSunroof	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 103300

"The U.S. stock markets, today..." I generally have absolutely no idea what the equity markets are going to do on any given day.... (Today started up but seems to be trending down. Where she finishes at 4, who knows?) However... I also expect that (given the massive amounts of newly-created money that the world's governments are showering on the world's financial systems) that the Financial FREEZE is in the process of ebbing now... and the PANIC is most-likely dragging along the bottom of the stream for a while, and valuations in some sectors have over-shot to the downside. (Good entry points in some areas, such as commodities, energy... if you can stomach extreme volatility for perhaps another half year or so... but with an investment horizon of three to five years or longer I think that a whole lot of stuff is very buyable here.) Although, after the Banking FREEZE unfreezes... and the PANIC recedes... we will STILL be facing Global recession in most countries - and likely an extra-bad one at that. It is possible that US recovery will not be logged until 2010 (federal deficit will, after all, likely EXCEED One Trillion next year... Iraq and Afghanistan are still costing... and the world will not continue it's willingness to support our debt for all that much longer)... so the recovery may be weaker than the 'normal' one this time. (Just as the 'Bush years growth' was much weaker than the normal expansion.) In fact, I saw some recent analysis that --- if you recalculated the GDP growth numbers for the recent years, and backed-out the massive amounts of equity that consumers were taking out of their mortgages (which was unsustainable) --- you see that several of Bush's seven years would have actually shown either ZERO GROWTH, or else actual negative growth... would have been classified as recessionary years. Bush really lucked-out that the consumers were able to draw money out of their mortgages for as long as they did. (But it was not a solid, sustainable growth model.) ....The red bars show how the economy would look without that borrowing power. George Bush would most likely have been a one-term president, as the economy would have been in a serious recession for two years, followed by a very slow recovery of less than a 1% growth in GDP in 2003-04. Unemployment would have been dismally high.