Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Westermeyer who wrote (6015)	10/22/1997 12:53:00 PM
From: Graeme Smith	Respond to of 9285

AMZN - Good. I don't think its business model can work. It has a market valuation approaching that of Barnes and Nobles. Personnally I don't think Internet book sales will ever reach more than 10% of all sales. This will be highly competitive between AMZN and B&N and some others. Hence profitability almost impossible no matter what the revenues. Also I am a high internet user and not a big reader but would prefer to browse in a bookshop. A friend of mine is a English Literature graduate and high reader. I suggested to her the concept of Amazon and her response was that the idea was interesting but that it wouldn't be the same a being able to browse in a bookshop. This surprised me as I would say that she was the bulk book buying demographic that Amazon was aimed at. AOL - Risky. Overvalued, but AOL is very well positioned. They are the perfect medium for Internet newbies. LCOS, YHOO - The internet engines (CNET, XCIT and SEEK included) are definately overvalued. Risky because of the growth and popularity of the engines. Eventually these will come back to earth. The total market valuation of the sector is going sky high, especially as their ad growth can't be sustained forever as competition get more intense. Also MS is stepping in with their own search engine. The sector may have had a lucky escape with the Monopolies investigation announced a day after MS's announcment. ONSL - ??? EGRP - Risky. I bought at 10 and sold at 13. Kicking myself. They are a risky long, but I don't think overvalued enough to go short. The competition is heating up for discount brokers, however E*Trade has established it self successfully. Also the market is growing very very fast. DDIM - Y2K stocks should be valued as if the next 2 years are a one off gain. Instead they're being valued as though they will grow at 50% indefinately. Companies are well underway with Y2K conversions, and the end of '98 should see most major work nearing completion. My belief is that this sector should start on its nose dive early to mid '98. Still its always good to have a few short today. As long as your patient you know that at worst on 1/1/00 the shares will be worth true value. RMBS - I am currently short but may cover. Technically has consolidated around 56-60 and may go back up. If it drops below then a good short. CTXS - Way overvalued. Good short one day, but too technically strong for me at the moment.