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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (10531)	11/11/2008 9:14:38 PM
From: stan_hughes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Canadian housing starts data is not a terribly reliable metric at the best of times IMO, not to mention that in the current context of Canada getting "surprised" at what has recently transpired globally, housing starts and asking prices are completely backward-looking statistics that offer little sense of what people are going to do in the future IOW, watch those starts drop like a friggin' rock in the next few quarters as plans were cancelled once the light went on. Price declines will follow, led by the resale market. Ergo, stocks cut in half + falling house prices = uh-oh People in a position to know have been telling me for 2 years now that over 50% of the condos in Vancouver are owned by foreigners who only occupy them some 2 or maybe 3 weeks of the year. What do you think is going to happen to the BC RE market when those foreigners now start trying to ditch those units en masse in order to raise cash to cover their losses elsewhere on the planet? IMO it could well rival what happened in e.g. Miami, the lack of US-style exotic mortgage availability notwithstanding And you probably don't need me to interpret what $50 oil is going to do / has already started doing to Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, etc. house prices, or what GM and/or Ford going down will do to what's left of Ontario. Let's just say that even if the government merely nationalizes the auto industry (versus letting it go outright bankrupt) it's still going to get very ugly in the home of the intrepid beaver This may have started as a US RE bubble bursting, but everything and everybody is on the hook now

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (10531)	11/12/2008 1:50:56 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

We have to remember Martin A Armstrong's fairly concerning projections beyond early 2007....... 2007.15 is projected by Martin to be a peak in commodity prices including Gold, however it could extend out into 2012 according to him. what we witnessed projected mamy years in advance... peak in Commodity prices during the 2008.5 portion of the year. In general the model indicated that everything would inflate again after the 2002 low, with an emphasis on hard assets - commodities, real estate etc. but given that the dow jones 30 took the lead and made new highs into the 2007 cycle date while commodities and housing peaked earlier that shows that capital had turned back to stocks (especially the blue chips) again. Which could tie into Don Wolanchuk (top timer's digest winner) assertion that we have entered the epicenter of primary wave 3 (elliot wave talk) and the dow is headed for 20K in the coming years. What lies beyond this time period is somewhat of a mystery as Marty and his computer can't talk anymore, however he has warned since at least the early 1990's that a major international debt crisis was a certainty with hyper-inflation, hence his statements - "My view of the future is not a very nice one." (had he only known that that would end up being personal premonition) and "We are going to live history." The 51.6 year confidence in private markets wave will end in 2037 which is likely to be a major low after peaking in 2032 - this could be a variation of what we saw happen in 1929, which would then lead to another 51.6 year wave with government falling into favor as the savior once again.