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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (32739)	11/11/2008 9:52:15 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78652

OSK- I have been looking at it since the stock was at 30$+ <ng>. market value is 440M$ and debt is 2.7B$. net tangible value is 1.9B$ (again due to good will from the recent JLG merger). This is going to the point where I'd start to look at buying the debt rather than the equity or in other words close to being a lottery ticket Then on the other side there is quite some potential if they survive. The specialty vehicles get sold to military, muni and public organizations where public infrastructure spending could indeed make a difference. The last 8K has some nasty language about violating loan covenants. I don't think i would buy if for the dividend because it could be gone in heartbeat but with a fairly diverse product mix and lot's or revenue from the public sector I think it's one of he better lottery tickets that is being tossed out here.

To: E_K_S who wrote (32739)	11/12/2008 11:07:43 AM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78652

Started a small position in OSK and added a few shares to HRP. At current prices, I expect dividends to be cut to service debt. Both companies have significantly underperformed the S&P 500. If they can be survivors the risk/reward at current prices seems attractive. Paul describes these opportunities as "lottery ticket" investments. finance.yahoo.com^gspc;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined I am watching CAT as this company will be a survivor. This is one you want to own prior to any Global recovery. Stock yields 5% at $33.5 which is 7% from its current price. The stock has traded below $20 six times since 1996 and the most resent visit was in 2002. My one big concern is that CAT's total debt is much higher than it has ever been in the past and the relative debt/equity, debt/outstanding shares and other liquidity ratios are higher than I would like to see. finance.yahoo.com CAT becomes a buy somewhere in the $20's and if that occurs the whole market will be quite sour. I will hold my nose and and nibble at a few shares if that happens. EKS

To: E_K_S who wrote (32739)	11/12/2008 1:31:59 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78652

OSK. Unfortunately for me, while Spekulatius was (wisely) only looking at OSK last June, I was buying a few shares. I am still holding them - maybe time to add more. I am considering. Not such great news out of KHD today. Lot of strength in the balance sheet vs. current price - company can hold on until better times arrive. (I wonder if I can.) Upped my small position just a little today. Also added oh-so-little to MTW as it falls to new low today. finance.yahoo.com