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To: jjstingray who wrote (173414)	11/12/2008 10:11:40 AM
From: The Freep	Respond to of 209892

What's been interesting to me since the market turned down on Monday is that if this week's move down is equal to the one from last week (and we learned here that a C wave must be equal to A and cannot be shorter :-)), then it also comes in a bit below 850. How convenient! I don't know if this is your D wave or something more bearish or if we'll even take out 880. I do know that GE just set a new 52 week low and that the finanicals in general aren't looking like a picture of health here. But I'm sure something will lead us up....

To: jjstingray who wrote (173414)	11/12/2008 11:08:01 AM
From: Win-Lose-Draw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

I've tried a lot of different numerical analysis across decades of market data and I haven't been able to find a workable definition of "triple bottom" that comes with a positive expectancy for playing the bounce. I could certainly be missing something - or just plain wrong in the current instance - but I've placed bets on the far side of a significant break of that lower line of yours.

To: jjstingray who wrote (173414)	11/12/2008 1:32:17 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

I think taking some short exposure off at the lower line is probably a good idea. Sure looks like everybody is diving in tandem in a coordinated retest effort. Isn't it true that Elliot triangles do NOT connect the start of wave "a" to the "b" bottom as you have done? Isn't it also true that Ewave triangles usually have an "e" throwover? That would be one heckuva pop - SPX 1000 again. So if you take exposure off at the lower line, and we're actually heading down in wave 5, how do ya play that? Just sell a quick pop off the 850 low for a few percent and step aside to see if a vigorous short-covering rally develops? Most of the distance traversed by "a" and "c" actually happened within the first few HOURS of those legs. Maybe you just buy it with a set timeframe for sale - hold for four hours and sell regardless. That way if you are headed into wave five, you get back on the right side of it before too much movement has happened. I have also noted that, when these bounces happen, the gigacaps tend to lead. So, you might follow by carrying longs in small cap ETFs. `BC

To: jjstingray who wrote (173414)	11/13/2008 6:56:04 PM
From: broadstbull	Respond to of 209892

Nice call...perfect

To: jjstingray who wrote (173414)	11/18/2008 11:04:45 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

I didn't take my own advice on ditching the hedges after four hours: <g> Message 25167798 So if you take exposure off at the lower line, and we're actually heading down in wave 5, how do ya play that? Just sell a quick pop off the 850 low for a few percent and step aside to see if a vigorous short-covering rally develops? Most of the distance traversed by "a" and "c" actually happened within the first few HOURS of those legs. Maybe you just buy it with a set timeframe for sale - hold for four HOURS and sell regardless. That way if you are headed into wave five, you get back on the right side of it before too much movement has happened. That's OK, in the intervening time, I decided I would be really upset with myself if we had a monster short-covering rally all the way into the holidays, and I was left scurrying to assemble an honorable retreat into hedges. I think it will be good to take the rest of the year (mostly) off. I still want to check it daily, keep the hedges tuned, but on the whole, I'm liking being on the sidelines for a while. EDIT: The one trade I am considering is putting on some oil exposure. However, respect for Prechter's deflationary scenario has me holding back some. Anybody got any favorites for me to check out? `BC