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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (6017)	10/22/1997 2:39:00 PM
From: Graeme Smith	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9285

A stock like Citrix should only collapse if some seriously bad news comes out. Then I will have missed the boat. This might be a good reason to own a few shares short now. I think when it goes it will follow one of 2 common patterns: It will either miss estimates. Its price may start dropping mid quarter as those in the know start selling. Whether this happens or not there should be an opportunity for shorting. The other possibility is pumping and dumping. Its price climb will accelerate for a couple of weeks with no real reason, then one day it will jump intra day by about 10-20%, followed by a massive drop as the bottom falls out. After this there will be some rebound as small investors do some bottom fishing, giving an opportunity to short. Finally it will go into a long drawn out down trend. I have had reasonable success looking for pumped and dumped stock. I have had little success shorting rising stocks. Yahoo especially has defeated me the many times I have tried. I closed another attempted a YHOO short at a loss this morning. Thanks for the information on Winframe. I may start building up a short position in Citrix once the momentum slows down. For me a stock like Citrix seems like a very safe bet since I can anticipate a time period where it will return to real valuations. In Citrix's case this should be within the next 3 quarters. Graeme