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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (10566)	11/14/2008 12:01:58 PM
From: nspolar	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

"I have to put that in the camp of the market rallying on bad news. When this happens could the lows for 2008 in equities be identified? very very likely." John, my read is not exactly the same. My read is that on the 3rd of November the markets, generally across the board, started a last major 'abcde' wave down, that will end this long down run. But it could be an extended leg. A move like yesterday, as hard and fast as it was, is almost 100 % of the time a counter correction against present trend. No prediction on bottoms, only prediction is that this is the last major leg down, in progress, now. Yesterday a 'b' top within the abcde pattern was likely attained. We would now then just be entering the real meat of the current leg down. I like the idea of a full 21 day run from the top into the 'c' bottom, or somewhere around mid Dec. It may want to fool us a bit I'm thinking, and go a bit longer. So far the run down popecked by yours truly TheFalcon is looking pretty bearish, with yesterdays low a probe on going through support in 8000 area. Maybe the PPT was watching and poured the coals to it, eh? If the 8000 area folds, the stab down is going to be quick and harsh. The best trade out there right now might just also be gold puts. Yes I have a few (on GLD). If gold makes another stab down here, and I see that quite possible, it will likely cave all the way to 600. The market imo is doing a wonderful job of weeding out the rift raft. Getting closer to switching hats, but we ain't quite there yet I'm afraid. The next low (mid Decemberish ?) will be quite playable, and TheFalcon is getting ready to change hats. The real pivot (the 'e') in my opinion is likely to occur around 1st of February. This should be made off a higher low, following an end of year blast ... which will be the 'd' of the 'abcde' spoken about above. The end of year blast may be quite energetic. Next year .... wow, already licking my chops just thinking about it. What to buy? What to buy? TF In edit: What the market may be trying to figure out here is how bad the recession is going to be. If the DOW 8000 minus a bit area holds, maybe not too bad. If the DOW puts in a deep plunge, maybe quite bad. I am not a fundamentalist ... looks to me however that the odds for a short and not very bad recession are not good. Commodities seem to be confirming that view.