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To: stockman_scott who wrote (46602)	11/14/2008 11:50:19 AM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

it looked like it could happen if we were the only one that crashed in this financial mess. But since the whole world is coming crashing down, not too likely

To: stockman_scott who wrote (46602)	11/14/2008 11:55:16 AM
From: fedhead	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

There is only so much debt you can raise on before the creditors start demanding much higher rates. (I am surprised they haven't done that yet) Its like whats happening to the US consumer (the average consumer has been locked out of credit markets except for the people with pristine credit) but on a national scale. Watch the long bonds (I believe the ETF is TLT). Right now its in a trading range. IF you see the TLT breaking down that would act as a brake on the US govt to keep going to the bond market to finance all these ridiculous bailouts. Anindo

To: stockman_scott who wrote (46602)	11/16/2008 9:34:35 AM
From: Condor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

CNBC Europe: USA May Lose its AAA Rating By: TraderMark Wednesday, November 12, 2008 1:47 PM I have to tell you the past half year I've spent a lot of time watching CNBC Europe since I'm waking up at all hours watching history play out (Sep 15: Historic Times) - many of the guests they have there are so far superior than what they show on US TV. Or maybe I think that because many agree with me. Or it could just be a superiority complex that we hold as Americans thinking "this can't happen to us". Even as I analyze my own performance and how it could of been improved, I remember connecting most of these dots in 2007 but not believing it could truly get as bad as my brain thought it could - so I was operating to some degree under that same mantra of "can THAT really happen here?" Well it is happening. And apparently only folks in Europe are allowed to say it. Back in April (Apr 15: Could the US Lost its AAA Rating?) we posted a piece about how the US could lose its AAA rating - this was after Bear Stearns but before the trillions of bailouts we've done since - the thesis at the time had a lot more to do with our unfunded long term liabilities (Jul 28: US Budget Deficit to Half a Trillion) (Mar 26: Annual Spring Entitlement Warning Falls on Deaf Ears) that as a nation we refuse to address and just kick the can down the road to another generation. Now, however, we are adding untold amounts of new liabilities on top of our already scary long term obligations- just as with AIG where the cost to us grows by the week, Fannie and Freddie was sold to us as "at most $200 Billion" in cost (Sep 7: Bailout Nation Continues - Fannie/Freddie Now Owned by You) - you now seem the blueprint with AIG on how this will work. You are sold the product at one price, and the real price will be far greater and without transparency. Just yesterday Fannie said its liabilities are set to pass the value of its assets - which means its government spending time. Fannie Mae's net worth -- the value of its assets minus the value of its liabilities -- fell to $9.4 billion at the end of September from $44.1 billion at the end of last year. If that number turns negative, Fannie Mae said it would be required to obtain funding from the Treasury Department. The ultimate bill for taxpayers may depend on whether the government, under President-elect Barack Obama, uses Fannie Mae and its sibling company Freddie Mac as a way to alleviate the foreclosure crisis by aggressively modifying or refinancing loans. (yes we can! and we will) "They're no longer being run for profit," said Fox-Pitt Kelton analyst Howard Shapiro. Trust me, $200B for Fannie/Freddie is going to be peanuts before it's all said and done - we will celebrate if that's all it costs us. These entities are going to be used to bailout the homeowners in 2009/2010 - to the tune of untold liabilities to the federal balance sheet. These are historic times and the road ahead is as tough as I could imagine if my thoughts for the year or two ahead are anywhere near as accurate to how I thought things would turn out last year around this time (Dec 07: Predictions for the Coming 6 Months) Much of what I see ahead seems improbable but that said, so much of what we've seen in the past year has redefined what is possible. (Jul 30: Federal Reserve Continues its Historic Actions) (Jul 11: More Historic Actions (Potentially) by the Fed) (May 4: Moral Hazard Run Amuck) (Mar 22: A Historic 9 Days for the Federal Reserve) (Mar 16: Fed Races to Rescue Bear Stearns) So referring to the US credit rating of "AAA" I don't appear to be the only one questioning how long this can last. Remember, we are effectively bankrupt the moment out creditors (China, Japan, UK et al) stop bankrolling us. So we'll see how it plays out over the long run - the debt load of the US is becoming alarming even for our standards... istockanalyst.com