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To: Jill who wrote (46613)11/14/2008 1:48:16 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 57684
 
right, today we got news 6000 layoffs at Sun Micro. Sometimes these headlines are more extreme than the results because they include attrition in their count and tech has such high attrition you look back on these announcements and find that they had a small layoff and that was it. But 6K is a lot of people.

I disagree a little with Theresa low because I think the 1929 or 1966 market peak was actually in 2000- so we are 8 years into this. Most of the wealth destruction from stock happened between 2000-2002, but it is masked in the indices due to survivor bias. For one thing we went from the largest number of listed stock in the nasdaq ever in the 90s to the same number as 1983 in the 2000-2002 period. That collapse was masked by the indices, and there has been nothing but more consolidation since that time.



To: Jill who wrote (46613)11/14/2008 2:19:02 PM
From: fedhead  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 57684
 
I also don't think we have seen the ultimate lows but I
do think we get some kind of a rally here maybe as high as
S&P 1100. That in itself would be a 30 % move off yesterday's
lows with some stocks going up 50 to 60 to 100 % in that time.
Some of the fiercest rallies happen in bear markets. For example look at the post 9/11 rally from September 2001 to
January 2002 when the S&P went from 944 to 1170 before rolling
over to make new lows in 2002.

Anindo