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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (32778)	11/14/2008 5:22:29 PM
From: Grommit	Respond to of 78659

BK REITS. I don't keep track of which reits have BK. But things like this are a more likely problem: clip: ProLogis PLD, the world's No. 1 developer and owner of warehouse and distribution centers, said CEO Jeffrey Schwartz resigned, and that it would cut jobs, slash its dividend and not proceed with new development, sending its beleaguered stock down another 44 percent. But the grinding halt of the credit markets has walloped many real estate investment trusts (REITs), who relied more heavily on gains from development activity than on operating real estate. end clip. me: The REITs to avoid are the ones mentioned above. (I did not own PLD.) That was FR's problem. HRP has asset sales occasionally, but the div is so far covered with on going rental profits. LXP and DRE also earn their dividends on rents.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (32778)	11/18/2008 5:51:32 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78659

I nibbled at a few of the beaten down companies recently discussed. They include: OSK, MIC, FR and DD finance.yahoo.com MIC is my lottery ticket. I believe the bad news is in after the company announced a 70% dividend cut (from $0.69/quarter to $0.20/quarter). Management stated that this was the prudent thing to do so they could build up their cash reserves. At June 30, 2008, the Company had $1.5 billion of long-term debt, $1.3 billion of which was hedged with interest rate swaps, $58.7 million of which was hedged with interest rate caps, $92.6 million of which was unhedged and $6.4 million of which incurred interest at fixed rates. Much of this debt is pegged to LIBOR which has finally stabilized so future debt payments are pretty much fixed. I believe the risk now is if their is sufficient cash flow from operations to cover their future debit obligations IF there is a protracted (several quarter) down turn in the economy? At $3.60/share, the company is selling at 80% below BV. The company can eliminate their dividend and/or sell anyone of their separate business operations to survive (if need be). The remaining business operations would still produce excellent revenue streams that would result in lower overall long term debt. At the current price a "worst case" outcome still makes this an attractive value opportunity IMO. Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) continues to be attractive at current levels as the company trades near a 10 year low. Their stated dividend is now almost 7% and the estimated forward PE is 2.5. An economic down turn may reduce their future earnings but they should have sufficient cash flow to service their future debt obligations. The company began construction of a new manufacturing plant today in Tianjin, China where they will produce aerial work platforms ( finance.yahoo.com ). First Industrial Realty Trust Inc. (FR) is selling significantly below their stated BV. Shidler Jay H a Director bought 1 million shares Nov 8, 2008 valued at $9.95 million. This purchased ranked as the No. 1 of the top 10 insider purchases from the recent SEC disclosure. ( thestreet.com ) Two other insiders also made large purchases at prices around $10/share so at today's close of $6.45/share it appears like a bargain. EI DuPont de Nemours & Co. (DD) now yields over 6% so I picked up a few more shares as I build my position. =============================================================== Paul has Aqua America Inc. (WTR) reverted back to it's mean or is $22.5 your target? The stock is closing in on it's 52wk high of $23.10. I might take my profits and buy some of these other super value propositions. What's your view? EKS