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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (32784)11/15/2008 1:24:23 PM
From: Paul Senior  Respond to of 78658
 
I'm looking at some of my oil positions to see which are correlated with COP price moves. APC stock price, for example, seems to move similarly enough to COP that I believe I'd now rather just ride with more COP and less APC, so I'll likely sell some/all APC shares, maybe buy more COP.

COP is already a top position for me, so if I added, I would be taking on more of COP's business risk (geography, geopolitical/management/etc.) vs. different risks with APC. Offsetting APC positives are COP's better div. yield (3.8%), larger size, and now stronger Buffett imprimatur.

finance.yahoo.com

finance.yahoo.com

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Of course, this could be the same false logic that got the hedge funds/quants into so much trouble, i.e. assuming stock/bond/commodity price correlations that worked in past will continue to hold true in future.