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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LoneClone who wrote (62195)	11/14/2008 8:35:57 PM
From: Rocket Red	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78407

mercatorminerals.com

To: LoneClone who wrote (62195)	11/14/2008 10:24:15 PM
From: GoldBull no bug here	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78407

running losses, which in this environment scares me - "Net loss after non-cash items and interest expenses for the three month period ended September 30, 2008 of $5.6 million compared to net earnings of $0.3 million for the corresponding period in 2007. "

To: LoneClone who wrote (62195)	11/17/2008 10:06:09 PM
From: loantech	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78407

How many shares FD and how much cash now LC?TIA.

To: LoneClone who wrote (62195)	11/20/2008 2:45:43 PM
From: Proud Deplorable	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78407

Its now .30 such a deal. 00000000000000000000000000 Mercator Minerals Ltd. (TSX: ML) The Race to the Finish Line: Mercator's Equity Value Questionable Underperform (prev: Outperform) Speculative Risk (prev: Above Average Risk) Price: 0.41 Shares O/S (MM): 74.8 Dividend: 0.00 NAVPS: 9.33 BVPS: 0.73 Price Target: 1.00 ¯ 4.00 Implied All-In Return: 144% Market Cap (MM): 31 Yield: 0.0% P/NAVPS: 0.0x P/BVPS: 0.4x Our EPS and CFPS estimates assume Mercator operates as a going concern in the future. Event We have downgraded Mercator to Underperform, lowered our target price to C$1.00 and changed to a Speculative risk rating. Investment Opinion The Race is On: In our view, there is a race between Mercator's ability to start up its Phase I sulphide expansion at Mineral Park and receive cash from customers, and its cash balance heading to zero. High Risks in a Tough Market = Speculative Risk, Underperform: We think the risks to Mercator's equity are significant and are, for the most part, already reflected in its share price. To properly reflect these risks, we have lowered our rating to Underperform from Outperform and changed our risk rating to Speculative from Above Average. Also, we have applied a 75% discount to our valuation of the company, again to reflect the elevated risks. Option Value, the Silver Lining: We have taken the view that Mercator has a high probability of finding itself in financial trouble. However, we think that if it is able to pull through, its share price could increases substantially from current levels. We believe that at its current share price, Mercator's common shares are effectively a call option on its future. Changes to Our Outlook: Given Mercator's current cash balance and future capital requirements (as per our estimates), we have modified our model to push out capital spending on the Phase 2 expansion (which brings throughput from 25,000 tons per day to 50,000 tons per day) from Q4/08 and Q1/09 to Q4/09 and Q1/10. Based on our forecasts, the company does not have sufficient funding to carry out the expansion sooner. Additionally, we have eliminated all revenue from concentrate sales from our Q4/08 forecasts and implemented a ramp-up in Q1/09 and Q2/09 of 50% and 75% of capacity, respectively. Valuation: We have modified our valuation to reflect the risks we discuss in this comment. We are maintaining our 9.0x multiple of 2010E EPS ($0.36) using long-term commodity forecasts ($1.50 per pound copper and $10.00 per pound molybdenum); however, we are applying a 75% discount to accommodate for the risks. Our target price is C$1.00 per share, down from C$4.00, previously. Priced