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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (42834)	11/16/2008 8:51:31 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217870

just in in-tray Interesting comment made last Friday Morning after the big rally on Thursday. (Hat tip Barry Ritholtz): quote Yesterday's equity rally was fascinating; not because of the excitement it has caused but because of the sheer lack of interest and belief. Having spoken to half a dozen people this morning about it, without exception no one either bothered to try and explain it or thought anything of it, and certainly no one even remotely suggested that it may be the start of something bigger. This is very understandable; business risk has removed any interest in the business of making money. Whilst people talk of "revulsion" at market lows, this complete lack of interest and dismissal of yesterday's move or the potential for any reason for anyone to commit capital, is exactly the same thing. What is more, we don't need a huge amount of capital to lift this; rather we need a reduction in the selling pressure. We are set up in a similar way to some of the big 2002 rallies whereby there are a large number of deep in-the-money puts out there. As these approach expiry, unless they are converted to physical sales rather than cash sales, then there will be a lot of buying needed to happen. This would not be an expiry effect only lasting a day or two before expiry, but would be like 2002, a monthly kind of move. It is also worth remembering that in 1974 10 day volatility exploded when the market rallied from its lows as the S&P jumped 17% in just one week ¡V (the Shanghai Composite is now up 16% from last weeks low, and there is speculation of a rate cut at the weekend according to Bloomberg). One other aspect on business risk is that if we do have a sizeable bounce from here, then hedge fund business risk may change to that of underperforming mutual funds etc. unquote

To: carranza2 who wrote (42834)	11/17/2008 6:10:50 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217870

just in in-tray ... grim Have been hearing stories of some the the biggest tycoons here in Hong Kong getting absolutely pummelled. (my boss isn't up obviously, but doing much, much bettter than some of his peers). Top 8 guys at Goldman passed on their bonuses. I was told that most of the higher-up guys are likely to get 90% cuts in bonuses from last year. One word on someone visiting NYC last week = grim Cathay flight from HKG to NYC, usually fully booked, was only 25% occupied both ways. Fare cuts coming soon? NYC car service business down 50% Most IB firms are looking to raise brand new debt funds, as that is the obvious cheap place in capital markets... (as I've been writing about). Buy now and front run the new funds!! <g> Rumor that MS will cut 15% of staff by year end, and another 15% in Q1. Rumor that by the end of Q1, Citibank staff will have been cut by 35% from the top.