Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Honey_Bee who wrote (40601)	11/17/2008 9:23:45 PM
From: queenleah	4 Recommendations Respond to of 42834

Cheapshot? Guilty as charged. You bet. No evidence? Wrong....again. The proof is there and you admitted it. There are several who remember that you admitted it, including your friend, Octavain. (sic) honey, please read what I write instead of spending all your time changing the subject. (1) I said there was NO EVIDENCE to accuse or question MI about two aliases. And so far you have obfuscated, diverted, and changed the subject from that point. Please answer this point before I go on to (2)

To: Honey_Bee who wrote (40601)	11/18/2008 9:52:05 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

The idea that no major market prognosticator saw this collapse coming is a lie, despite how hard some may try to give this impression. I got this ad from Forbes and can testify that Shilling has been bearish for some time. Do you think the shills here will hammer Forbes for not publishing every buy and sell ever recorded by Shilling on this ad? <<ROAR>> Economist Gary Shilling was Right - What's Next? Dear Investor, Among all of the financial prognosticators, commentators and pundits filling our airwaves and email inboxes with predictions and prescriptions, none has been more prescient about the current financial crisis than Forbes' own resident economist Gary Shilling. As many of you know, Gary’s Financial Strategy column has appeared regularly in the pages of Forbes Magazine since 1983. Back in September 2004, Shilling first wrote a column in Forbes entitled “Wall Street in Dreamland” that accurately predicted that the financial markets and the U.S. economy, which parted company in the late 1990s, would eventually rejoin causing a lot of people to lose a lot of money. He warned his readers: “Don't be one of them. Don't buy a bigger house than you need, and don't buy stocks on margin. Buy Treasurys.” What many don’t realize is that Gary had been warning his Insight newsletter subscribers as early as July 2004 about our subprime-fueled housing bubble and warning that when it burst, our entire economy would face dire consequences. “When house prices return to earth—and price declines of 20% in the U.S. and 30% elsewhere are warranted—the effects on the global economy will be serious.... Subprime loans are probably the greatest financial problem facing the nation in the years ahead.” - Insight, July 2004. Gary’s predictions have been eerily accurate. But Gary is not merely a doom and gloom economist. He also gives his newsletter clients specific advice on how to position their portfolios. In January 2007, for example, he laid out a 13-step roadmap for his subscribers. Among his predictions and recommendations: 1) Prediction: The housing bubble will burst. Recommendation: AVOID homebuilders, building materials producers, mortgage and subprime lenders and related entities like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Result: Housing prices are down 21% nationwide from July 2006. Homebuilders are down 68% from their highs. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are insolvent and getting a $200 billion federal bailout. 2) Prediction: “U.S. stock prices will fall, perhaps below the 2002 lows, in the midst of a major recession.” Recommendation: SELL Stocks. Result: So far the current financial crisis has wiped out over $7 trillion of stock market gains. The S&P 500 is at the same level it was in 1999. 3) Prediction: China will suffer a hard landing due to domestic cooling measures and U.S. recession. Recommendation: AVOID Chinese stocks. China’s Asian trading partners and their currencies and stocks will be damaged by a weak Chinese economy. Result: China’s Shanghai Composite Index is down 60% year-to-date. 4) Prediction: “Weakness in U.S. and China will spread globally, dragging down economies and stocks universally.” Recommendation: SELL Emerging Markets. Emerging markets have been driven by American and other offshore inflows. Capital will flee emerging markets and these export-driven economies will collapse. Result: Morgan Stanley Capital International’s Emerging Markets index is off 32% since the beginning of 2008. 5) Prediction: “Treasury bonds will rally.” Recommendation: BUY Treasurys. They are the world’s highest-quality instrument, have huge market liquidity and can’t be called, which limits appreciation as interest rates fall. They can be sold anytime with ease and don't need to be held to maturity. Result: Yields on 10-year Treasurys fell from 5.1% in June 2007 to 3.7% recently. 6) Prediction: “The subprime slime fallout will spread.” Recommendation: SELL junk bonds. Losses from subprime slime will cause a credit crunch that will hit private equity firms hard and limit their ability to do deals. Overleveraged companies and debt-ladened mergers will suffer. Result: Junk bond spreads over Treasurys have skyrocketed. Single b-rated junk bonds for example now yield 12%, up from 8% in mid 2007, as their prices have plummeted. Spreads over Treasuries are now 820 basis points, versus about 321 basis points in mid 2007. What is iconoclastic Forbes Economist Gary Shilling saying now? Among other things, Gary is warning readers against giddy enthusiasm over the government’s $700 billion bail-out. Gary is under-whelmed by the current plan and foresees at least another year of recession and dismal equity markets. He contends that the lynchpin of the global economy is consumer spending, here and in places like China and India. Given the current financial and housing-related job losses and the worldwide economic fall-out, Gary says consumer spending is likely to be crippled for many months ahead. However, Gary is not recommending that investors just curl up and hide. He is actively recommending a specific Bear market asset allocation plan that involves, among other things, buying Treasurys- even at these reduced yields! Gary also has specific recommendations for oil and other commodities. If you would like more details on Forbes Economist Gary Shilling’s predictions and a step-by-step program for profiting during the current market turmoil, please click here. Each 20 plus page monthly issue of A. Gary Shilling’s Insight includes: * In-depth analyses of current global economic, political and financial trends and how they affect the investment world. * Easy-to-understand charts, tables and other metrics dissecting economic indicators critical to making sound investment decisions. * Specific investment theme action directives like “Dividend-Paying Stocks” and “Dollar Plays” and “Health care Productivity Enhancers.” * Gary's famous back page commentary on matters great and small, complex and mundane, serious and frivolous. * Archived monthly issues of Insight going back four years. In addition, we will also send you Gary ’s Free Special Report, Bear Market Tool Kit that will provide you with the specific steps that you should take to protect your portfolio. The financial crisis has already taken too great a toll. Act now to position your assets for growth.