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To: Aggie who wrote (165108)	11/18/2008 5:47:20 PM
From: Travis_Bickle	Respond to of 306849

It would be a huge 11, probably they would try to get major stakeholders on board before filing, that means union, pension, major suppliers, and large holders of debt. Equity is dead so I doubt they bother with it. Common won't get to vote on the reorg plan. Getting sufficient DIP financing commitment is what would get stakeholders on board. I think they would probably want to put part of the DIP in escrow to guarantee warranty obligations. The financier would probably insist they bring in turnaround specialists to run the show at least for the first couple of years.

To: Aggie who wrote (165108)	11/18/2008 5:50:21 PM
From: Broken_Clock	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Geez. All over a little bailout money, talk about bang for your buck! This could be quite a show, if properly managed, for us taxpayers. == remember Paulson and Congress decrying the end of civilization w/o the bailout? Now $3 trillion vaporized and yet somehow we are still functioning, albeit somewhat poorer.

To: Aggie who wrote (165108)	11/18/2008 10:06:03 PM
From: Stefan	Respond to of 306849

Fear, fear, fear it worked for Bushist it worked for airlines, for the banks why it should not work for automakers?

To: Aggie who wrote (165108)	11/18/2008 11:27:26 PM
From: XoFruitCake	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

"Could anyone here speculate outcome if Ch 11 is taken? What would be the actual events as they unfold?" the first hurdle is the DIP financing. No one in their right mind will fund GM and F Ch 11 given their union contract that they will reject and the fight that will ensure and the size of the DIP will be breathtaking. The only entity that can provide the funding at this point seems to be uncle Sam. Once in Ch11, GM/F will hold up all the payment to dealers (incentive, rebate, payment for warranty service), bond holder, bank, preferred holders, their suppliers, marketing partner etc.. Everyone of them will become an unsecured creditor and everyone will have to wait in line in the bk court to get their payment (may be only partial payment, or equity swap for the loan. but that will take at least 2-3 years to sort out).. Most of their suppliers probably has to go Bk as well since they won't be able to make their own payment when they loss the account receivable with GM/F. And car dealers may also go into bk as well..Once it go into bk, GM/F will operate on cash only basis using the DIP finance and income from selling cars. Health care for retiree will be terminated. Pension will transfer to government with retiree benefit capped (so a lot of employee will loss a lot of money). Wages probably will be paid since court normally are very good about wages. And GM/F can negotiate a new contract with UAW since they will throw out the old one. UAW probably will fight back with strike and put pressure on Fed government for letting GM/F go BK... GM/F may choose to use replacement worker or just close shop for a while until they get a new contract. And GM/F management will have an exclusive period of time to draw up the plan to exit bk. In the mean time, big time claim on unemployment benefit and consumer spending drop significantly in cities and states that has heavy GM/F employment. It is not going to be pretty and it is going to be very widely reached.. But the problem is that given GM/F money now does not solve the problem. Their business model does not change and they are still not competitive in the car market... So we will be here again for another 25B in 6 months or so until Dem congress (I am not trying to be political but bailing out big 3 is really Dem priority since union is one of their major base) run out of pocket money to give and they will eventually go bk anyway...