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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: davesd who wrote (9189)	10/22/1997 4:31:00 PM
From: derek cao	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Dave, from your posts it is obvious that you think there will be a slow-down in semi equip. However, a lot of amat's long term holders here think otherwise(including me). As a matter of fact, there is nobody can know sure. Do you agree? It is just our guess work. If amat drop to mid 20s, our long term holders can bite the bullet and hold it for another year or two hoping everything will be fine in the long run. But what if there is no slow down and amat back to 60s, how long can you hold on your shorts or puts? regards derek Standard Disclaimer

To: davesd who wrote (9189)	10/22/1997 4:40:00 PM
From: roly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Dave, These were from Dauvin, a well known researcher of the sector. <<For starters, the chip market will double by 2000 and hit $290 billion to $300 billion. Dauvin holds to that outlook, despite the recent plunge in memory-chip prices that has prompted many gurus to lower their sights to $250 billion or less. That's too low, Dauvin insists, because ''there is no disconnect in the long-term trend'' of 16.4% annual growth. This year's 6% growth rate is way below the line, but Dauvin asserts it will soon be made up, with sales climbing at least 20% in 1998 and then zooming 30% higher in 1999.>> Since we are both speculating, I'd prefer to believe the expert opinion of the above. It's quite obvious that you are short on AMAT thus making all these claims, but you can't support it. Good luck Roly