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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (90534)	11/19/2008 5:48:59 PM
From: Nihontochicken	3 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Here is a link to a neat utility showing the yield curve as a function of time. Click on the S&P chart on the right to show the yield curve at the time (shadows show the closest previous curves, "trail length" is adjustable). Also you can click "Animate" to show how the yield curve changed with time. It appears that the inverted yield curves in 2000 and 2007 correctly predicted the recessions ahead of time, but apparently in the 2001-2003 recession, the steepest curve, where the curve reversed and started to flatten again, lagged the market bottom by many months, and was not a leading indicator such as were the curve inversions. stockcharts.com (Thx to Mr. WS on IV CWEI Forum for flagging this.) NC

To: mishedlo who wrote (90534)	11/19/2008 8:22:02 PM
From: Proud Deplorable	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Mish, an idea to debate and maybe pass on in your campaign. Firstly I was also shocked by the big 3 private jet scandal today and now think that there should be extreme conditons set if there is any money to come. Here's my brilliant idea. Each of the car companies must take the best seller in each car and truck category and make that their complete line for the next 5 years and not make any changes except some minor body differences just as Nissan did with their Pathfinder for 10 years which was the most successful SUV ever, nor would they be allowed to introduce new designs. It made Nissan as a company, that and a few sedan lines. The auto mfgs would have to close down all the other yearly BS and new models. There are too many cars on the road and too many choices and so to cut expenses the choices must go. I think this would save them. In order to level the playing field import car companies that manufacture in the USA must follow as well. Imports from other countries would have to be banned for 5 years. If the big 3 don't agree then no money. Also ALL advertising in the media must stop immediately as that's a huge waste of money and would be unnecessary if there is a limited choice now. No more wasting money on color brochures, black and white is fine and way less expensive. Web sites could stay as they are as they really don't cost that much in comparison to TV, magazine, sports events promotions. No more fancy brochures and no fancy on site dealerships meaning no improvements to premises. AND those dick heads who flew to Washington should me made to walk home!

To: mishedlo who wrote (90534)	11/19/2008 9:46:32 PM
From: Dan3	Respond to of 116555

Re: Bloomberg is reporting U.S. Long-Term Treasuries Advance as Consumer Prices Plummet. ... The thing to keep in mind is that this is not ultimately going to be driven by "natural" economic forces. It will be driven by decisions made by a handful of public officials. What they do or don't do will drive whether we have inflation or deflaton now or later. I agree that if the government does nothing, we're headed for disinflation. But I don't think the government will stand by and do nothing. The current Republican administration, of course, seems to be determined to destroy the nation's economy, but they will soon be gone. Things will change.

To: mishedlo who wrote (90534)	11/19/2008 10:32:46 PM
From: John Pitera	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Hi Mish, sorry to wander over here with my like the village idiot in a James Joyce novel... just feeling kind of opinionated tonight. (always a dangerous thing to be doing!!!) a post from my thread tonight...... Hi Tom, (JP getting bullish on equities) I had a post here a few weeks ago showing that the credit markets are thawing... that still seems to be the case cnbc.com 3 month Libor back down to 2.17. I think all of this thrashing around that US and global equities are doing is great as it's getting the bottom pickers and traders grinded up and that pretty much has to occur to have at least an intermediate term bottom. I've been talking SPX 775 for a bottom for a few months, and it's taken lots of time and hugh amounts of pain in different equity sectors, as well hugh job losses etc. The SPX will have experienced a near 50% decline at the 775 level and I mentioned as well two hundred points higher from here that it would probably require a real eye jarring 50% decline go dissipate bullish psychology. The daily SPX chart is displaying some very nice bullish momentum divergences on the Daily ROC as well as the RSI etc. As is the DJIA, as is the $compq. The next 20% just about has to be to the upside in my mind on all 3 of those indicies. I know it's crazy talk.... but the lows look very very close to being put into place. These indicies are showing triple momentum price divergences, my wave counting was always looking for the SPX to go look at the 2002 lows at 775, there is lots of panic out there. I can not imagine there are that many outright bullish people right in here. I'm actually starting to get pretty darn bullish on US equities and I'm think days as a time frame for this to occur, not a this quarter or next quarter time frame. So your crazy friend is raving once again ;-) Markets are notorious for overshooting on the upside in mania's and overshooting to the downside in Panics. So it does not make sense to get petulant on any specific price point being the magic level. Time and the impact it has on mass psychology IS the single biggest element. And speaking of a market that has gotten a bit overextended going down. It's got to be getting very close the time to be looking for the low in crude. It's getting overdone on the downside, and market mavens on cnbc and bloomberg are saying well it's at 55 it's been going down so sell it. I see if I can scare up a bit more info on crude. In the bigger Elliott wave analysis of crude it will be back to it's 4th wave of lesser degree at 51.70 I believe it is. That area should be the magic level to see it rebound. Crude's decline has had the tail wind of the uber strong US Dollar, there are limits to the US Dollar upside that are entering into focus here I believe. John