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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (10625)	11/19/2008 10:44:43 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Respond to of 33421

JP, it sounds like we are on the same page. When I wrote that little bit last night I didn't really expect today to be a dramatic down day. Now that we broke through support on the comp and spx and lowest close on the Dow this season, the fear is definitely there. I was noticing those momentum divergences earlier myself. I'm thinking that crude will bounce around $55 to $68 for a little while. China is looking to do another infrastructure buildout with the rail system. I expect this to bring my miners back into play very soon. My sources in Australia are saying that part of the reason that demand dropped off so dramatically is that China has been stockpiling iron/iron ore so that they wouldn't be at the mercy of the producers. Rumor has it that they have a year's supply. My guess is that China will start buying raw materials again soon since the prices are low. Then they will be able to use their stockpile to control the prices (when the price starts rising, just dip into the supply and reduce demand). Part speculation, part opinions of the folks in the biz. so I am cautiously bullish with the understanding that deep down, the economy is really messed up and sooner or later we are going to have to feel the pain.