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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Muizz M. Kheraj who wrote (5158)	10/22/1997 4:54:00 PM
From: MW	Respond to of 13594

Hey Muizz; I've been a bull on aol for awhile but even I think your numbers are crazy. Prepare yourself for the attack of the killer bears. MW

To: Muizz M. Kheraj who wrote (5158)	10/22/1997 5:02:00 PM
From: Yikes	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13594

Let's set some things straight! > AOL currently has 9 Million customers, with an estimated 30 Million > customers on the internet worldwide. This is compared to 6 Billion > people in the world. About half these people have a phone. If 10% > of individuals with a phone get on the internet over the next 5 > years (very realistic growth), then we're talking about 300 Million > people on the net, or about 270 Million more people. AOL, at > minimum, will capture about 25% of these people. > > In short, by 2003, AOL will have 100 Million customers, with > revenues at minimum (not counting Ads) will reach 10 Billion > dollars annually. You can't be more wrong. Yes, there are (or will be) 6 billion people on earth, but about 80% are in Asian (China, India, etc). None of these people will be AOL's customer because they don't even have computers. If they use WebTV, they can't be AOL's customer; WebTV uses PPP. People below the age 15 will not have an AOL account. People who can surf the web at work will likely not get an AOL account. Each household will have at most one AOL account. And most household will not be using modem in 5 years. AOL will never have 100 million customers, 15 million, maybe. Your thinking is exactly why people are still buying AOL. Institutions are driving up the price so they can write calls at ridiculous premium right now. When AOL announces earnings on Nov. 6th, watch out! The sell-off will begin. Yikes

To: Muizz M. Kheraj who wrote (5158)	10/22/1997 5:02:00 PM
From: craig	Respond to of 13594

muizz,put the crack pipe down. i don't even think sam would agree with those numbers. if anything, aol will loss market share than gain. of course i hope you were being sarcastic.

To: Muizz M. Kheraj who wrote (5158)	10/22/1997 5:06:00 PM
From: Brent D. Beal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

So if we multiply everything across the board, how much money will they be losing once they've reached 10B in revenues? You've made my point--you've tried to justify AOL price and not once did you mention earnings. The fact that you left that out, whether intentionally or not, just shows how much of a mania AOL has become. I sold my puts a few weeks ago and decided I would watch things for a little while. At the time I was hoping that AOL would move up a little while I was on the sidelines. . . This has been too good to be true. Let's see if we can get to $100 just for fun. Here's a little something to spur all the "bigger idiots" buying this stock onward so that the rest of us can get into some puts a little cheaper-- 1) Intel supplies, what, about 80% of the world's microprocessors, and let's see, how many people are there on the planet, how many own computers, wow, what a potential market, right? (same reasoning you used for your AOL arguments) 2) AOL is such a great company, it deserves as least 2 times the multiple accorded to Intel--afterall, who needs microprocessors when you've got a modem, right? Plus AOL has such a great earnings track record. . . 3) Let's see, Intel has a P/E of around 25. . . 4) AOL is just warning up, (potential, you see), so we can't use last year's earnings (oops, there weren't any earnings last year. . . What about this year's earnings--oops, AOL would only be worth about $3 if we did that--what about next year's earnings?--naw. . . that doesn't improve things much--let's get past this CompuServe thing--we'll use the projected 1999 earnings (that's not too far away, not much happens in the tech sector anyone, so projection only 2 years out should be OK). 5) Current 1999 estimates (high side) are around $1.50 (we'll give them the benefit of the doubt, after all, they've put together a pretty impressive earnings track record so far. . .) 6. That means that AOL is worth at least $75 dollars a share. 7. Hey wait a second, AOL is selling for over $90???? What's going on. . . 8. No problem let me work these numbers a little, I'll get back to ya. . . 9. OK. Let's assume AOL has 3 times the potential of Intel. . .