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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Trading Cabana -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kevin Podsiadlik who wrote (4548)	11/20/2008 10:36:46 AM
From: RockyBalboa	Respond to of 6370

Look 10 years back and circa Aug and Oct, 1998 I had a similar feeling.

To: Kevin Podsiadlik who wrote (4548)	11/20/2008 1:13:05 PM
From: John Koligman	Respond to of 6370

Agreed. I've been trading since 1975, and this is the most brutal I've seen it. The NASDAQ crash was bigger in percentage terms, but those 'clicks and eyeballs' issues had it coming, and other things were working on the long side. With something like 9 trillion in stock market wealth gone and additional trillions in housing, it might be awhile before people decide to stick their toes in again. I spoke to some this weekend that have pulled everything from the stock market over the past few months and were pretty negative about getting back in anytime soon. It's pretty amazing to watch major parts of the US market just being decimated. Not many 100B+ market cap firms left. Not long ago SI members were talking about GE becoming a 'teenager', now they are talking about GE going into single digits.... Come to think of it, none of Welch's proteges have been doing all that well, Nardelli bombed at Home Depot (but walked away with 200 mil!), and now 'runs' <ggg> Chrysler. 'I-melt' presiding over huge wealth destruction at GE, and McNerney has taken Boeing down to the 38 range the other day. Regards, John

To: Kevin Podsiadlik who wrote (4548)	11/21/2008 1:44:14 PM
From: Bill Wexler	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6370

Take a look at USG...which I've traded before and is a component of Warren Buffett's portfolio. It's now at a level where not only is the current housing/construction disaster more than priced in, but also the assumption that there will never be any new construction...ever. Debt deflation bear markets are terrible, nasty things, and we can be slogging around here for quite some time (wouldn't surprise me if we go down another one or two thousand points on the Dow), on the other hand, this could be one of the best opportunities EVER for deep value investors (think USG again)...assuming you can hang on and grit your teeth for 5 to 10 years.