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Strategies & Market Trends : Quarter to Quarter Aggressive Growth Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (6117)12/1/2008 8:39:34 PM
From: Jack Hartmann  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 6924
 
Record Nasdaq days on the downside
10/19/87 -11.35 %
04/12/00 -9.67
09/29/08 -9.14 No bailout, WB bought by C. Dow down 7.0%. S&P down 8.74%
10/20/87 -9.00
10/26/87 -9.00
12/01/08 - 8.93 Bernacke speaks gloom, manufacturing is bad, retailers have bad opening.
08/31/98 -8.56 Russian and LTCM crash
10/15/08 -8.47% Retail numbers were bad, beige book bad.
04/03/00 -7.64
01/02/01 – 7.23% Funds lock in profits, Robbie Stephens downgrades EMC, INKT, NTAP, many others. NAPM Index at 43.7% (consensus was 47.1%), the lowest since April 1991 and indicative of a continued contraction in the mfg. sector
12/20/00 – 7.12% FDRY takes down infrastructures with the warning.
04/13/00 -7.02
10/27/97 -7.02 Asian Financial Crisis
09/17/01 - -6.83 Trading resumes after the WTC bombing
11/19/08 -6.53% fed says unemployment could be 7.6%, recession all 2009.
03/12/01 – 6.30% CSCO warns prior period, Barron’s pummeling fiber optics stocks, ERICY warns.
01/05/01 – 6.20% BAC rumors of bad shortfall due to CA utilities and CSCO rumors of missing quarter sent it down.
04/03/01 – 6.17% - ABRA, ITWO, RBAK, AXP, INKT, ENTU, BVSN, warn last night.
03/27/80 -6.15%
03/28/01 – NT and PALM warn the night before sending networkers down double digits.
05/23/00- 5.93%
10/07/08 -5.80% MS fears the Japanese bank will pull financing and BAC has horrid earnings.
11/5/08 -5.53% election results and profit taking after 205 runup.
10/09/08 - 5.49% GM and MS downgrades, shorts allowed back
11/12/08 - 5.17% Treasury not buying toxic mortgage assets.
Best Buy earnings warning horror.Intel just cut Q4 guidance.
GOOG below $300.
11/20/08 -5.07% Congress postpones vote on auto bailout.
11/14/08 - 5.00% Worst retail month in Oct ever.

Put/Call ratio 1.00
Under 0.40 is Very Bullish sentiment, 0.40-59 Bullish, 0.60-0.79, Neutral, 0.800-0.99 Bearish, Over 1.00 Very Bearish. When many are bullish, this may be time to take profit.

VIX 68.51
When it runs below 20, usually a good time to take some profits. If above 35, good time to buy.

Sector Watch
Breakout of the day
everything was down

Collapse of the day
$XBD Broker Dealers 64.00 -13.53 -17.45%
No funds means less trades.

NYSE Volume 2,420,798,560
Down Volume 2,148,880,758 (89%)
Declining Issues 3,358 (85%)
New Lows 117
New Highs 15

Nasdaq 1,985,608,587 LOW!!!
down volume 1,932,290,170 (97%)huge ratio!
New Lows 2,445 (82%)
New Highs 5
New Lows 147

Crude $48.62
Nat Gas $6.53
Gold $776
Silver $9.37
Copper $1.62

DJIA 8149.09 down -7.7% -679.95

S&P 816.21 down -8.93% -80.03

NASDAQ 1398.07 down -8.95% -137.5

Quote of the day
Even if financial markets improve, economic conditions will probably remain weak for a time," Bernanke says. "In particular, household spending likely will continue to be depressed by the declines to date in household wealth, cumulating job losses, weak consumer confidence, and a lack of credit availability."

In the 2000-2002 bear, we had 10 days of 5%+ declines. Now we are at TEN. Now we will see that this is worst than the Nasdaq crash of 2000.

Trump Tower only half filled. Deutcshe Bank and Trump are suing each other.



To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (6117)3/13/2009 12:09:27 PM
From: Jack Hartmann  Respond to of 6924
 
View from the last bottom in November 2008. Some select SI quotes from 11/20-21/08

Look at the SKF getting pummeled. SKF, SDS, dug, and qid are getting smashed.

The worst case for C is that they sit around for another year and depress the shit out of everyone.

I probably just flushed a few thousand down the toilet, but just tiptoed into C at 3.88. Wish me luck. That position will need it. Would they simply wipe out equity holders completely?

Fear is now in total control of the markets.Someday someone will push the panic buying again

They just keep getting more incredible and I keep getting my head handed to me whenever I venture into the market.

OT its looks like Citigroup is going under.

weren't we just talking about this a few weeks ago? up 5%, down 5% the next day....ho hum

I'll be pretty freakin ecstatic if i can be within 1000 dow points of the bottom when I launch my lunch money into the market

don't think any bottom made soon will have much of a bounce. In otherwords a long period of sideways action will occur after this debacle...

The market falling another 450 indicates I'm another Sgt Schultz. I know nuthinggg.

It's all about trading and your ability to beat the game.

The auto bailout must have reduced uncertainty so the stock market should rally. Right?

Support ???...We have now undercut the 2003 low....

Does a rally come? Who knows, but this surely is a contrarian indicator.

That's the case...as I have been pointing out...for the SPX here...At the 10/10 low, RSI reached a low of 22..At the 10/27 low, RSI was 32....Yesterday's low gave us an RSI of 35....Clearly, a substantial...and persistent.. positive divergence...Past performance would lead to the conclusion that a substantial rally is being signaled...at SOME time.....but we shall see...LOL

In the 2000-2002 bear, we had 10 days of 5%+ declines. Now we are at NINE. The volatility is going to be high until we see the funds stabilize.

**************************
The 11/21/08 was a large rally. It lit a 4-6 week run.

1929 Crash Dates and numbers

September 3, 1929 - Dow 381
October 27, 1929 – Dow 299
October 28. 1929 – Dow 260
October 29, 1929 – Dow 230
November 13, 1929 – Dow 198 interim bottom after losing 48%
April 1930 – Dow 294
July 8, 1932 – 41.22
October 2007 - Dow 14164
Today Dow 8324 - Down 41%
Dow 6798 is the 48% from the high. That is the number some are watching.

While not as fast as 1929, the numbers are in the back of my mind.

So This comparision is holding. Nov 20 was the bottom. The peak might be in April.