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To: Dale Baker who wrote (69151)	11/21/2008 12:10:51 PM
From: Sober	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 118717

Dale, there are those who feel that commodities will be the safest things to invest in, since they will still be needed even in a downturn or in an inflation environment, and as stockpiles dwindle due to cut production, and as it gets more expensive and difficult to open new sources, commodities will continue to do well into the future. For example, copper will always be needed, and as population growth continues and demand continues (even without as much growth) copper will be still needed. That is not true for things like search engine internet sites, or slightly faster computer chip, or more stylish cloths etc.... sugar, rice, wheat, gold, silver, copper, zinc, oil, natural gas, etc should all come out of this still intact and probably even stronger as demand growth returns to find depleted stock piles (which of course will take some time) For the immediate future, gold will probably be a good investment (not the miners), but due to different reasons than those noted above. More having to do with it being money than a commodity. Sound reasonable? Sober

To: Dale Baker who wrote (69151)	11/21/2008 2:05:24 PM
From: schzammm	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 118717

The world has to eat. Dale MOS has a trailing PE of 3.51, PEG = .24, forward estimate PE = 2.13. MOS also has more cash than debt according to Yahoo stats. Canpotex is the world's leading exporter of potash-an international marketing and distribution company wholly owned by the Saskatchewan potash producers: Mosaic, Agrium Inc., and Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. 11/06/08 Canpotex announced today that it has concluded new supply contracts with its Japanese contract customers covering shipments for the first half of 2009 at a price increase of US $200.00 - 220.00/MT (depending on grade) over current contract prices. The new contract price reflects an average equivalent delivered price to Japan of over US $900.00/MT. Steve Dechka, President & Chief Executive Officer of Canpotex, stated "While the world works its way through a financial crisis, the need for food is not slowing. This contract settlement demonstrates that our customers understand that potash remains in tight supply and fundamentals are very strong, despite the recent volatility in markets." From MOS latest financial release: Global demand for crop nutrients is expected to increase while global grain and oilseed stocks continue to decline. Farmers have responded to high agricultural commodity prices by growing record harvests, but it has not been sufficient to build grain and oilseed stocks to more secure levels. To reverse the unsustainable trends in global grain and oilseed stocks, yields need to increase. Improved crop nutrient application rates boost production and increase yields. Inventories for North American potash producers declined to record low levels in August 2008 and strong global demand continues for potash. Inventories for phosphate producers increased from the low levels of a year ago; however, phosphate fundamentals remain positive and demand is expected to rebound once inventory levels are normalized. "We expect strong earnings growth to continue in upcoming quarters," said Jim Prokopanko. "Momentum remains strong in the potash market with healthy demand, low inventory levels, and various industry supply disruptions. Momentum has slowed in the Phosphates business near-term due to the combined effects of soft seasonal demand, higher customer inventory levels and falling raw material costs. Accordingly, to better balance inventory levels and supply chain demands, we will reduce planned phosphate production by 500,000 to 1 million tonnes over the next several months. We remain optimistic about the second half outlook for phosphates and will be well positioned to capitalize on that outlook." Phosphate sales volume guidance for fiscal 2009 has been reduced to a range of 8.0 to 9.0 million tonnes, with the majority of the reduction expected in the second fiscal quarter. Mosaic's average DAP selling price, FOB plant, for the second quarter of fiscal 2009 is estimated to be between $1,020 and $1,080 per tonne. Potash sales volume guidance for fiscal 2009 is unchanged at 8.2 to 8.6 million tonnes. Mosaic's second quarter fiscal 2009 average MOP selling price, FOB plant, is estimated to be $560 to $620 per tonne. Partially offsetting the benefit of higher projected MOP selling prices will be higher Canadian resource taxes and royalties and increased costs for resources including steel, reagents and labor. Key factors that affect Mosaic's selling price and volume estimates include current and anticipated agricultural commodity pricing and phosphate raw materials costs, industry and supply chain inventory levels, and China's policy on phosphate exports. IMHO there seems to value.