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To: Keith Feral who wrote (69164)11/21/2008 2:03:49 PM
From: cink40Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 118717
 
OPEC is full of shit, they say together they will cut, but states secretly do not do that ..



To: Keith Feral who wrote (69164)11/21/2008 2:16:26 PM
From: Cogito Ergo SumRespond to of 118717
 
Maybe my 10K bid on CLL will get hit @ .66 ... then we rocket back :O) I actually just bumped it down from the current range last week...



To: Keith Feral who wrote (69164)11/21/2008 2:23:19 PM
From: axialRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 118717
 
OPEC doesn't have the stranglehold it used to have. But it still matters - even when they can't get their own members to cooperate. If Saudi Arabia cuts production by 2,000,000 bpd, it matters.

OPEC has to be careful... if they jack up prices/restrict production too quickly, they'll turn a recession into a depression.

Until 2007, global oil use was growing at 2% annually.

bakerinstitute.org

It's a balancing act, but you're right: de-leveraging by hedge funds has produced some excellent long-term plays. Or you can just use ETFs. Most producers with cash and no debt should be able weather the low prices. Meanwhile, new production just won't come online at these prices. So when things turn around, prices should move up to the $60-$80 range quickly - it's almost like a short squeeze.

Especially if (as expected) USD starts to fall. That alone will raise the price of oil.

Jim



To: Keith Feral who wrote (69164)11/21/2008 2:45:50 PM
From: bafi403Respond to of 118717
 
opec needs money to prop up their economies. their annual operating budgets (conditioned earlier on high oil prices) are probably a mess right now. so it is unlikely that they will cut production too much. and if they get into a bind, they may even increase production ......

bafi403.