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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: bart13 who wrote (99795)11/21/2008 3:33:08 PM
From: LTK007  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 110194
 
i thought that was the case, i was thrown by this though, as i wasn't sure how it read <<w/o lies from Williams>> Thus the Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm:)

One thing i like to throw about myself and how try to get a feel for things is that i am big believer in Murphy's Law or to simplify, the more complex that something is structured the greater the chance something go badly amiss.

Along with factors of data and TA have have been considering Murphy's Law in terms a the world and local financial system/structure.
My feeling has been for sometime we have build a system that has gotten so complex that fixing one breakdown only causes something else to breakdown.
In software i am aware they have some mathmatical expression that states when problems reaches a certaim "Critical Mass", give up, and discard the whole progam,.
i have heard it described as for every problem solved you get two more problems in its place.

As i ponder the race to solve this crisis i have been asking myself the question have we reached a "Critical Mass" as in software terminology.

i hear all the arguments for and against bailout.

The anti-bailout side "Grin and Bear It", endure the pain, in the end we come out stronger.

The for a Bail-Out side, that paint a dire picture of the major pain if not done and not done now
But that seems only to stall a dying situation.

So one says just let it die, a new energy will recommence.

The other, to let it die, and we will never have the new energy to recommence as matters are that desperate.

The Spear Repot as taken-up the side that a GDII is a real possibility, maybe now a probability.( The Spear Report insists that any militarism ahead MUST be stopped as it would be the last straw, so to speak)

They go back to the 1929 to argue not since then have we had a situation of having to deleverage down from massive leveraging.
Just yakety-yak to saying what a "witches brew" we have found ourselves, we don't choose the pages in history we wish to live, and we may have gotten dumped into a nasty chapter--o my. We will see. Max