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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (14813)	11/21/2008 4:47:59 PM
From: Condor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71463

Whos the new T sec?

To: Real Man who wrote (14813)	11/21/2008 5:10:07 PM
From: Amelia Carhartt	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 71463

What's so great about this guy?

To: Real Man who wrote (14813)	11/21/2008 9:08:16 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71463

Yes I think I´ll ride it out with the Texas Hedge, despite todays action made me jittery. <g> 30 years... 128, 10 years, 121.8, EUR 1.239999, GBP..well with some luck from 1.46 Chip in some EUR JPY at 118 or so (it traded 116 but I fell asleep on the switch). There´s one small problem. Deflation experts do not rule out that the UST rates hit 2% or so. THe massive refi coming up? No issue... <g> When I was a kid I turned up at our swap desk to install a machine; I overheard the trader selling Yen swaps at 2% (the then DEM treasury rate was 6% at least). I politely asked: 2% isn´t this nuts? And you sell at 2%? He said you have no clue, just look, we go lower (in yields) much further. The cash rates were approaching zero in Japan and the JGBs would ultimately trade at 0.7% yield rather than 2%. This was in 1995 when the japanese economy faced its third year in deflation... US - 10years at 2.99% or so. Well we discussed the following: IF by luck the economy would recover this clearly goes hand in hand with price inflation and a 3% LT yield is clearly too low. On the other hand... the US is not Japan and a net debtor; a prolonged recession coupled with a fundamental decline of the dollar must impair the ability to serve treasuries.. hence? The deflation idea goes back to bubble times: Message 24672596