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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (166409)	11/25/2008 12:05:35 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 306849

do do realize I am in venture capital do you not? i do realize this, but i don't hold it against you. i prefer to judge people's arguments on their own merits without worrying about what types of badges they are wearing. i don't agree with your argument that trading in Escalades for Teslas saves gas for the world as a whole. the Escalades are still there, waiting to destroy the planet with somebody else's foot on the pedal. perhaps some think that if an Escalade driver buys a Tesla they are magically saving the planet, one car at a time. if Ari Gold were to bring home an Escalade on Entourage, i am sure that's what he'd tell his moneygrubbing wife. and she'd believe him once she saw the diamond-encrusted Manolos he'd bought her. remember, somebody else will drive the Escalade for the rest of its service life. of course, instead of selling the Escalade to another driver, you could take it to the junkyard and have it destroyed. but that is even more wasteful. now, with the global crsh, there will be fewer people with F*k You Money to buy Teslas, so more people will keep their Escalades. this will cause the planet to experience a great fear and trembling, followed by sickness unto death. all because of the mean stock market!

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (166409)	11/25/2008 12:50:05 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

When was the last time you chose an emerging growth stock that was a 20 bagger? i don't really invest in growth stocks anymore. i invest in established dividend paying energy stocks in the stock market. i also own various FX, gold, and i had some HF positions i mentioned here. i'm not sure what "choosing" a particular stock proves. to me the most important thing is how my PF as a whole is doing. if you put all your money in one stock that is a 20-bagger this year, then you are probably doing better than 99.999% of investors this year. however, if at some hazy point in the past, you put some hazy percentage of your assets in a stock that went up 20x over some hazy amount of time, making a hazy percentage of money relative to your PF, and your PF has some hazy performance, then i'm not sure what that proves, or says. on a PF basis, you would probably not believe my gains since 1999. suffice to say the figure is well north of 20x. this year i am up about 10%. if you've done better than that, then good for you. personally i think much of performance has to do with luck. i do not believe investors have skill. at the same time, i think the markets are inefficient, so i don't trust that indices or asset classes or individual assets are fairly priced. this means i try to find $100 bills lying on the ground, because i have found them before, but i don't think i have any edge which will let me find future ones better than other investors. in the future, the $100 bills might all be hanging from high tree branches only flying squirrels can reach.