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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bart13 who wrote (99829)	11/22/2008 9:53:17 PM
From: posthumousone	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

any anecodotal evidence of how auto sales are going this month???? I am in the market for a car but have no desire to step up and buy the big 3......i might consider it if they had some real sales, however these prices of the same rehash prices of aug and sept. Nothing to lure me into the showroom.

To: bart13 who wrote (99829)	11/22/2008 11:29:08 PM
From: pogohere	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

I did read your iTulip piece on deflation. I understand the green line in the adjusted graph to be the blue M3 et al adjusted for your downward BKX adjustment. The monetary winds swirling about are making it tough for us amateurs to dope this out. (no s--t, Sherlock! haha) I have lately been working on incorporating and factoring in the velocity and multiplier factors to parse any genuine liquidity additions that will move prices, especially precious metal prices. I think the market smelled liquidity this Friday, but I haven't seen a measure on it yet that persuades me it is happening now. Fekete's MONETARY REFORM: GOLD AND BILLS OF EXCHANGE at financialsense.com my comment re Schacht on this:http://siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=25164775 re velocity: I wrote this (http://siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=25109671) in response to this: Message 25108842 gregor.us just commented on velocity:http://siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=25199231 On the multiplier effect, I first made this observation: Message 24851721 incentive not to lend: Message 25073836 Message 25081116 Given that Obama is relying on the usual suspects inside the box whose worst fear is deflation, I'm looking for liquidity that has legs, i.e., velocity, but haven't seen it yet. The multiplier can't kick in if the banks won't lend. I don't anticipate this non-multiplier condition changing any time soon, especially in light of the job losses. I am persuaded by my other work that Dec 10-15 will involve a point of recognition of how severe this crisis is. Yes, that means a real possibility of a Crash, way beyond what has already occurred right here in River City. Could be triggered by a bank failure, the formal demise of the auto makers, a genuine sighting of liquidity generation/movement, further sovereign failures, etc. Film at 11. BTW: Zarlenga's book has a fabulous bibliography wherein he notes the sources that are especially pertinent. After I read SZ, I tracked down Schacht's and Mullins writings. Well worth the effort.