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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pogohere who wrote (99833)	11/23/2008 4:02:12 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 110194

makes sense

To: pogohere who wrote (99833)	11/23/2008 7:57:32 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

part of that is correct but i suspect it has MUCH further to unwind and the damage to be done is considerable. moreover the guy doesnt seem to realize that the derivatives unwinding is also at work here and likely just getting started.

To: pogohere who wrote (99833)	11/24/2008 12:30:47 PM
From: TimbaBear	13 Recommendations Respond to of 110194

As for the Depression statements that’s not going to happen and it’s a waste of time bringing it up IMHO. In 1929 the US government actually raised rates during the economic collapse, making the problem far worst than it should have been. That forced unemployment to rise to 25% back then. The US is currently at about 6.5% and it is expected to rise up to possibly a worst case scenario of 9%. A far cry from 25% back in 1929. Back in 1929 very few workers were considered to be self-employed, a group which is not considered in today's unemployment calculations. I think I've read over the years that something like 70% of our workforce is now considered "service industry" and a high percentage of those are self-employed. If one were to factor in all of the self-employed who are now vastly underemployed, I wonder if we would be so sanguine about the rate of unemployment? How many framers, roofers, plumbers, electricians, drywallers, stucco guys, real estate salesmen, surveyors, contractors, mom-and-pop restaurant owners, etc, etc are doing whatever they can for whatever they can get but still going under? None of these will show up in the rolls of the unemployed because they cannot file for unemployment insurance. I think it farcical for us to think that the country has lost close to 50% of its accumulated net worth and only experienced a 6.5% rate of unemployment......but then much that I've seen in this country over the last 8 years or more has been easily categorized as farcical. Timba