Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (83604)	11/24/2008 8:51:13 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

The recovery of the stock market into year end is quite likely as bonds sell off, with tech leading the broad market, but the US economy will remain in a rut for decades one way or another. The credit crisis is about to spread to US sovereign bonds (the treasuries), with a corresponding devastating drop of the dollar, since the bailout and printing efforts essentially lower US sovereign credit rating. If the market recognizes that, as opposed to bonds selling off due to recovery, stock market decline could be devastating. As bonds continue to sell off and rates continue to rise to reflect all the printing, expect stocks to follow bonds and the dollar down. A true recovery requires rebalancing of US and global economy, with recovery in technology and manufacturing taking the front row seat and picking up jobs lost in the financial sector. If the confidence in the currency is lost, US may have to be a net exporter for quite some time before the dollar is trusted again, and it may never recover the reserve currency status. I agree, some companies have little debt and lots of earnings, for now. Their earnings will get hit in January.