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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (45157)	11/25/2008 5:09:44 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71716

I think we have only seen the start of the down turn in the economy, especially in Canada. We have been temporarily insulated in BC and Alberta, but the write downs that we are seeing at the Canadian banks I expect have only started. There was a real estate bubble in Canada despite what the government would have you believe. It may not have been as large and the underlying structural problems may not be the same as in the USA, but we may see a decade of no price increases and even declining selling prices. If you bought decades ago a 30 or even 50 percent decline is not going to effect you much. If you bought in the last 5 years that is another story. The fact is the generation coming up behind that will buy the real estate from the baby boomers is a lot smaller. Most people can do the math when there are more seller than buyers and the bulk of the baby boomer start to retire in 2015. I expect at least another 6 to 9 months of bad news at least. Despite the government intervention the delayed contraction part of the traditional economic cycle has to play itself out.