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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (99962)11/26/2008 4:48:56 PM
From: bart13  Respond to of 110194
 
Quite true on velocity (as well as the area of monetary lags), and its dicey to try and measure it these days too.

Usually M1/base gives good hints but considering what the Fed has done with base recently, it may not be reliable... I just plain don't know. Same with the Fed's money multiplier since base is a component of it.

GDP/M3 did bottom a few months ago and shows a tendency to forecast a velocity reversal about 11 months later... and the reliability of GDP isn't exactly great either... and the bottom disappeared when GDP was revised this week too.

Bottom line - things like a retail sales trend change is what I'm watching... and who knows.



To: Hawkmoon who wrote (99962)11/26/2008 8:15:41 PM
From: Little Joe  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 110194
 
Given that many consumers are tapped out and can't afford to borrow anything, they will soon realize that the only way to solve the problem is huge checks to individuals. I think we are going to see a series of "stimulus checks" before this reaches the hyper inflation stage.

Little joe


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