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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (13689)	11/28/2008 1:37:58 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	6 Recommendations Respond to of 50056

SLW closes up+ 14%... I put on an overweighted trade Wednesday because it's so damn cheap, has lagged, and technically was right on the cusp of breaking out... And break out, it did... On the gap up open, I waited for the first sign of any weakness, and took off 1/3rd at $3.20. While it moved significantly higher, I believe that you must stay disciplined with what's working in a given market environment - until it no longer works. Job #1 when you catch a breakout, is to not give it back, ala HL, or NG. Bank "some" profits while they're still profits, and use tight trailing stops. SLW then based and rallied again on strong volume. I thought it could possibly run to the $3.60-70's today, as it had a similar run twice recently. I took the balance of my "over-weight" trading position off into the close, and will now let my "core hold" weighting ride into next week, with "mental" stops in that $3-$3.20 range. On a stock like SLW, given the tax loss selling that we should still see in December... do not enter trading stops unless you simply can't monitor positions through the day, because those stops are magnets on pullbacks and will be taken advantage of. But, a stop that get's taken advantage of on a pullback, is better than no stop at all... The only other trade I made today, was taking some KWK off on the fear that it too, may file a shelf registration to issue more shares. I kept a trading position on, but only a much smaller position representing 1/2 of my trading profits from Wednesday's re-entry in the mid $5's. While KWK has fantastic assets, and is presciently hedged, and is in no real financial trouble here... It's becoming clear that companies are seeing the lack of financing as potentially continuing all through 2009 and into 2010. The trade may be to step out of all stocks that may file to issue more shares, and wait to step back in after the announcements and the resulting sell offs. And companies like KWK, if they do NOT plan to issue more shares... need to come out with Press Releases saying so! I was tempted to step into CHK today, probably should have, but didn't. We should probably see at least one more significant pullback in commodity stocks in December, given the run they've had here, and with a 4 week window for year end tax loss selling. Any tax loss selling should be a very nice re-entry as long as our underlying commodity prices hold here. Gold is holding $800, and we all know that silver is now at an extremely undervalued basis to the Gold:Silver ratio. Enjoy the long weekend everyone. Mo ham & mo pumpkin pie later, SOTB