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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: studdog who wrote (99997)	11/28/2008 1:17:41 PM
From: Hawkmoon	1 Recommendation Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

I'd be interested in knowing what he's basing that upon... I could say de-leveraging is over right now, but what are my facts? I think the reality will be when GS tells the markets they now comply with 12-1 leverage required by commercial banks. But then that still leaves the European Banks, who I believe are only just beginning to deal with their de-leveraging issues. And I'm still not so sure about China, despite their tremendous cash reserves. We'll really need to watch the demand situation there, some of which might be reflected in oil prices. Since their economy was primarily export driven, and they were consuming huge quantities of global commodities, it stands to reason that global equilibrium requires demand to remain level there. But it wasn't more than 8 years ago that it was rumoured that more than 50% of China's loans were non-performing. They claimed they cleaned the mess up, but I'm still not so sure. After all, this is a country that has faked everything from the girl singing their national anthem, to their very first space walk. And as TJ was claiming the other day, China is asserting that retail sales were up 22% just days after they pledged to spend 25% of the foreign reserves in a stimulus program. I'm just not convinced of a hyper-inflation scenario at this time. I'm FAR MORE CONCERNED over global deflation and protectionism. Hawk

To: studdog who wrote (99997)	11/29/2008 12:23:58 AM
From: John Pitera	1 Recommendation Respond to of 110194

I have spoken of asset destruction and a 5 t 10 Trillion Mark down in the Credit Default Swaps / CDO Market and credit et al... I think we are approaching the culumination of this process as well. I know I can point to a few people on my market lab thread that felt that I was insanely bearish on how much credit instrument destruction/ loss of value .... and the fact that we needed to see at least a 50% decline in broader share prices, to create the liquidiation phase of this credit market meltdown of 2007. I coined the term the centipede market a number of months ago... and we have seen more global carnage than anytime this past 150 years in the world. I'm getting more optimistic here about the credit contraction/destruction having largely run it's course. Now...... Reflation and then actual substantial contained asset class inflation........ I'm perfectly ready to talk about the next macro leg of these things happening. JOhn

To: studdog who wrote (99997)	11/29/2008 3:23:30 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

Think Fleckenstein is referring specifically to hedge funds liquidation. I agree with him. wallstreetexaminer.com