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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (100012)11/29/2008 10:35:16 AM
From: bart13  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
In another "drop back 10 and punt" area, here's another concept I've been playing with for a while. I took M3 plus Federal debt, and added in credit (real estate, consumer, bank, comm'l/industrial, credit card data from FRED). Then I took the total credit portion and adjusted it down by 2/3 of the percentage drop of the BKX since its 6/2007 peak, as a proxy for debt deflation.

Of course its just an exercise and way out there, but...



Same chart but without any BKX adjustment




To: russwinter who wrote (100012)11/29/2008 3:20:33 PM
From: Hawkmoon  Respond to of 110194
 
Excellent article.. That's some of the kind of stuff I was looking for and logically presented.

Hawk



To: russwinter who wrote (100012)11/30/2008 12:30:00 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™  Respond to of 110194
 
excellent stuff. i agree. have put on some of that trade already.

either it works or great patience will be requried until it does.

upside is too good not to try.


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