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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike M2 who wrote (10733)	11/30/2008 10:55:19 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 33421

Thanks for linking that Mike, I think our stock market bubble of 1999-2001 was more like the 1929 period. I have stated on this thread a number of times that a superior analogy to this 2006 to 2009 experience is what happened in Europe in 1719-1720, with the Mississippi Bubble, John Law's great experiement with Credit in France. Also I have to disagree with some of the author's comments: when I read the 1812-1986 brand new history book of the first national city bank; it went to great lengths to illustrate that the seeds of speculation bank lending that was defaulted upon began in 1926-27 when vast amounts of money lent to Argentina and other south american countries secured by their crop harvests went unpaid as they had horrendous crop yields especially in Artentina in 1927, this impacted European banks even more greatly than US banks but it started a credit contractionary environment. Paradoxically during these initial phases credit runs away from areas where losses have occurred and "doubles down" and gives even credit to where prices are rising. That helped provide all of this late 1927 to mid 1929 easy credit for Wall Street. These global capital flows really need to be studied from multiple perspectives, Friedman and Schwartz certainly had their perspective, as we are all somewhat limited by being the product of our times and our culture. John I was pleased to see one of the world's largest and most succesful heads of a global currency trading shop voice those same observations, which I Also posted here. hhhhhhmmmmmm time to set up and index of these thought ideas... JP