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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (45179)12/2/2008 9:47:48 PM
From: Johnny Canuck  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 71911
 
Market Scan
Research In Slow Motion
Ruthie Ackerman, 12.02.08, 07:30 PM EST
The Blackberry remains addictive, but the tough economy will dampen sales.

Research In Motion is in the right place but at the wrong time. It's high-end handsets are what the people want, but they don't want them now.

On Tuesday Research In Motion (nasdaq: RIMM - news - people )’s shares sank 6.2%, or $2.48, to $37.32, after JPMorgan Chase analyst Paul Coster slashed his earnings forecast. The Blackberry maker’s shares have plunged 67.1% since the beginning of the year.
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The current tough economy is likely to run mid-priced cell phones out of the market. (See “The Cellphone Squeeze.”) The winners will be the high-end, high-profile phones like Apple (nasdaq: AAPL - news - people )’s iPhone and RIM’s Blackberry, though the weak economy has delayed that. (See “Smart-Phone Calling.”) Smart phones have been relatively steady sellers for the past year, according to data from comScore M:Metrics. A few months ago, analysts predicted the U.S. smart phone market would grow 25.0% year-over-year. Now estimates for annual growth are at 11.0% to 12.0%.

RIM’s rival Palm, (nasdaq: PALM - news - people ) which makes Treo and Centro mobile phones, is not so lucky. After the bell on Monday Palm reported that it expects second-quarter sales to miss Wall Street’s expectations as consumers hold onto their current phones for longer than had been expected. (See “Clammy Palm.”)

For Research in Motion, Coster maintained his earnings estimate of 86 cents per share for the fiscal third quarter, which just ended, but lowered his estimate for the quarter ending Feb. by 2 cents, to 83 cents per share. For the next fiscal year, Coster reduced his earnings estimate by 15 cents, to $4 per share.

Still, Coster said RIM is benefiting from a new product portfolio and maintained his “Overweight” rating on the stock, saying it is undervalued.

RIM is set to report its fiscal third-quarter results on Dec. 18