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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Investor2 who wrote (1776)	10/22/1997 9:50:00 PM
From: Rock Fish	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Bob has mentioned in the past the fact that one can capture 80% of the market gains with 50% of the risk by going with 50-50 ratio of equities and fixed securities. This makes sense over the long term considering historical interest rates and market gains. Does anyone have any comment on this philsophy? -- RockFish

To: Investor2 who wrote (1776)	10/22/1997 10:13:00 PM
From: Boca_PETE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Investor 2: To all your questions the answer is "nothing to report". However, the exchange rate of the Hong Kong/ U.S. dollar has been fixed for a long time and Hong Kong is a huge financial center. We experienced an inflation fall out and deep recession in U.S. after the wage-price controls fell apart in the mid 1970's. It ocurs to me that a floating of the Hong Kong Dollar, should it occur as a result of the currency and Hong Kong stock market turmoil, could have consequences outside of Hong Kong. Then again, John Templeton might observe that we may be close to the point of maximum pessimism - a buying opportunity. What do you think ?? P

To: Investor2 who wrote (1776)	10/23/1997 7:32:00 AM
From: RDavidson	Respond to of 42834

I2, IMHO, we are seeing a reaction of the far east market to the dominance of the ChiComs in the manufacture of many of the region's commodity goods. Look at the items that constitute our inbalance of trade with those really great guys, all those items that require no real tech advantage (yet... just ask Corning...), and can be leveraged by the world's least expensive labor and a dearth of environmental controls. I fear "we aint seen nuthin yet" with the ChiCom economy. We're exporting our cash, and it's being converted into the modernization and expansion of their military. An economist can argue short term benefits to us, since less net cash exits the consumer's pocket for similar goods, but this seems like a holy cow scenario when you stand back and look at it... The ChiCom economy, IMHO, is going to continue to grow with unbelievable numbers absent a major political uprising within their borders. Their long term plan seems to be regional domination, something we have not heard of in that area since the late '30's. This time around, we're not dealing with a small rocky atoll with a population a fraction of our own and a dearth of natural resources. They seem, at least at the present, to have us figured out, sell us all the low priced non durable goods we can eat in exchange for dollars, and use a small percentage of the boot to buy well placed influence where it will do them the most good. Looks like it's working to me. Talk about exploiting niche markets, this group is even marketing human organs, fresh from the political dissidents. (We're buying them also....) The remainder of the region's nations are trying to cope with a market redistribution of the region's wealth, away from them. Right now, it doesn't appear that they've found a solution. I'd be interested in hearing any other opinions here. I'm certainly claiming no prescience here, only an interest in history, and what may be the effect of the extension of current trends. What I see as the worst problem here is what looks like almost a total ignorance of the whole ChiCom "effect" by us, both politically and militarily. I hope I'm really wrong here... Sorry to ramble, Roger D