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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (41962)	12/2/2008 7:46:34 PM
From: cluka	Respond to of 95616

If someone told me in 2001 that WFR would be making $3 in earning ever again I would have called him crazy!!! For this company to have as much cash as it does and be positive in earnings at this stage in Semi cycle is unbelievable. If they never sold another ounce of Poly and just destroyed all the equipment to make it, their Semi business is worth more than they are trading at right now.

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (41962)	12/2/2008 8:23:08 PM
From: Pam	Respond to of 95616

I went back to the end of August and compiled the earnings changes on a weekly basis for LRCX and WFR. Don, first, many thanks for taking in my request and responding so promptly with excellent summary tables of what has happened to earnings estimates for LRCX and WFR in just the last 13 weeks. Second, when I look at table for WFR and go over my list of solar companies, I find that almost the entire list is trading within the bottom 25% of the 52-week High-Low range and combined with news flow for the sector (weak demand, financing problems, lower oil prices, etc.), it is logical to conclude that demand for polysilicon from these players is getting weak just as new capacity is coming online in a massive way because of investments that were done over the last couple of years. It is true that a lot of these solar companies have contracts going out a couple of years but they will get renegotiated for sure, to much lower prices. Contracts could be enforced, but probably not a good idea in the long term while polysilicon prices are collapsing because of a glut resulting from a combination of lower demand from traditional semiconductor players, solar players and overshooting of capacity build-out! Polysilicon is a commodity and prices will come down significantly as it gets dumped. WFR's GPM is way too high for a commodity product and cannot be sustained. As I go through the table you provided, estimates have come down but this is not enough, they will have to come down a lot more! Sure, a lot of bad news is already reflected but it ain't over until the estimates stop coming down! When the low estimates are in place and WFRs revenues reach a steady state, it might be a good idea to reevaluate this stock! This is just my opinion, FWIW. Thanks again, for excellent tables!