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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (437829)	12/3/2008 3:35:05 PM
From: Joe NYC	Respond to of 1575274

Technusatsu, A Merrill Lynch analyst cited NBER indicators last January and declared the same thing: that the recession started in December 2007: Only thing is that Merrill Lynch can jump the gun while NBER had to wait before making a conclusion. The positive GDP growth in Q1 and Q2 of this year was probably discounted as a temporary bump in a secular bear market. But any deceleration could be a leading indicator of recession, but not every one is. It is entirely conceivable that if the oil didn't go to $147, and the bottom fell from under the credit markets, say 6 months later, then, there could have been another 1 or 2 quarters of positive growth. (BTW, timing of these 2 - increase in oil prices, leading to increased expenditures of households and inability to service the mortgages are not independent of each other). Anyway, would December 2007 still have been the start of the recession, if we had 3 or 4 quarters of positive growth, subsequent to Q4 2007, instead of 2? Like I said, it very much resembles retroactive trading... Joe