Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (437842)	12/3/2008 3:53:24 PM
From: brushwud	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1575517

I am not really sure what it is they are reporting. Leading indicator of a trailing indicator? It is not reporting on when recession started, even though it is what they call it. Recession already has a definition. Here is Wiki's: In economics, the term recession is generally used to describe a situation in which a country's GDP, or gross domestic product, shrinks for at least 2 consecutive quarters.[1][2] Wikipedia is a great resource, but it isn't any sort of authoritative source. I looked at those two footnotes, which are references to a couple of dictionary definitions, and both say "usually". The main thing seems to be that one Q of negative GDP growth is not enough. Footnote [5] on that wikipedia page is to the NBER. The NBER is saying that the recession started in December, 2007. Obviously their conclusion is a lagging indicator. Take a look at the Q & A on the page I linked to. One of their points is that they like to use monthly statistics rather than quarterly.