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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bentway who wrote (168748)	12/3/2008 3:54:00 PM
From: MulhollandDrive	Respond to of 306849

i think i read somewhere that there were fewer than 100 arrests of employers for hiring illegals, and i'm not sure if that number includes the fake document facilitators i do believe the mere threat of arrest was enough to squelch some of the illegal hiring activity which has resulted in out-migration back to mexico (that combined with the housing bust) cis.org <snip> Now, it’s important to understand that the figures show only our total estimate for the number of illegal immigrants in the country. The observed decline must be due to some combination of illegal immigrants leaving versus the number coming. Now, in the report, we discussed the issue of in-migration versus out-migration in much greater detail, but overall we find that most of the falloff seems to have been caused by a significant increase in the number of people here going home. If you will, out-migration seems to explain these results; in-migration also fell, but the more dramatic change seems to have been in out-migration. Remember, there’s always a lot of churn, people coming, people going, a small number – very small number – who die in any human population. But mainly, it’s the numbers coming and going. There are no births, of course, that are illegal in the United States. Children born in the United States are awarded U.S. citizenship and so are not illegal aliens. Now, what caused this decline? Well, this really is the $64 question. Well, the two main factors that might explain this decline are increased immigration enforcement and the economy. In the report, we argue that enforcement seems to have played a significant role in causing this decline. Now, one indication that stepped-up enforcement is responsible for what we see over here on my left is that only the illegal immigrant population seems to be affected, as I pointed out. Legal immigrants, who are still subject to the same economic forces, seems to continue to grow. Another indication enforcement is causing decline is that the illegal immigrant population began falling before there was a significant rise in the unemployment of illegal aliens, and that’s really important. If it was the case that the economy was driving people out of the country, we would expect unemployment to rise and then people to leave. And in fact, in the report, we look at historical data. You can see the long-term trend, if you have the report, in figure four. In general, that shows that the illegal population declines after a jump in unemployment. That’s not what’s happened; the current trend is a complete break with anything in the past, and that is strong evidence that increased enforcement is playing a role.