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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (169047)	12/4/2008 3:10:30 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

I don't think rates are all that crucial at the moment. Jobs are, income is. Even with low rates, loan standards remain (appropriately) tight. And incomes are falling. And we have a huge backlog of existing homes, foreclosures, etc. All in all, any nice bounce in homies here should be shorted, not yet but soon. What low rates will do is encourage people to refi.....eventually that money will get back into the economy.

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (169047)	12/4/2008 3:19:03 PM
From: Perspective	Respond to of 306849

They're buying the hell out of FAF and FNF based on the refi boom I guess. I hadn't seen any reason to cover them til now, so I got caught kinda flat-footed. FNF's book has dropped below $1B, they're lugging a bunch of debt around, and they trade for $3B. I have a problem covering them now that they've doubled. FAF is even better <s>. They've got so many liabilities and debt that their tangible book is negative $700M. At least they bought a bunch of goodwill and intangibles.<s> And if you're lucky, they'll make a buck next year for a PE over 20. What am I missing? Oh well, they tend to do these month-long rocket launches and then give it all right back. Guess I bought a ticket on another one of those rides. :( One of these holders must be a good manipulator: HIGHFIELDS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT L.P. 8,787,879 9.46 $259,242,430 30-Sep-08 GLENVIEW CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC 5,680,858 6.12 $167,585,311 30-Sep-08 BLUM CAPITAL PARTNERS, L.P. 3,801,700 4.09 $112,150,150 30-Sep-08 `BC