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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: skinowski who wrote (114563)	12/4/2008 5:51:01 PM
From: ChanceIs	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206345

>>>comment on historic precedents - like, what happened to oil demand during the Depression of the 1930's?<<< One good source of information on that would be Daniel Yergins, "The Prize." I would suggest that there can be no comparison between these two periods. In the early '30s (check my dates but not the facts) the "Black Giant" in east Texas was discovered, and the bottom fell out of crude prices. We are talking pennies a barrel. The so called "Hot-Oil" Law came into being, which was basically production restrictions. If you produced more than your allocation, then the overproduction was "hot oil." Just don't get caught with it. The Texas Railroad Commission implemented the program. Later the program managers went to work for the nascent OPEC to teach them how to run an oil production restriction program. The bottom line as to why there is no comparison was that in the Depression, there was a surfeit of crude. >>>(It is my understanding that during recent milder setbacks, like in the 90's, global demand in fact continued to grow).<<< I think that at worst it got flat. There were weather related demand issues and some economic based ones with the Asian Contagion. At the time, the US economy was very strong. IMO the supply issues were the ones that tanked the market in the late '90s. I smell fresh fear/panic today. I am not sure of the source. All of the credit indicators look horrible. There might be another Lehman like blow-up in the works.