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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gregor_us who wrote (43472)	12/4/2008 8:57:43 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217697

2009 is ... i dunno hope for the best, guard against worst ? as usual.

To: gregor_us who wrote (43472)	12/5/2008 7:47:59 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217697

· The move in the renminbi exchange rate this week has raised the issue of whether China is going to allow its currency to depreciate. GREED & fear is not yet ready to come to such a drastic conclusion. Rather Monday's move should be seen as a manoeuvre by the mainland to signal to the US that market pressures would be for the renminbi to depreciate were it not for Beijing intervention. · GREED & fear senses that Asia-based investors are less freaked out than their American counterparts by the sharp deceleration in growth suggested by mainland data in recent months. This presumably reflects a greater confidence that the escalating Beijing policy response will at least get some traction. · There is clearly a risk that the dramatic negative news from the US will cause Chinese consumers to turn ultra cautious. But to GREED & fear this is not yet a foregone conclusion. The key issue will be to monitor developments following the explosion of policy announcements this quarter. In this respect the residential property market will be very important. · China is more critical than ever for investors in Asian equities because the sentiment has collapsed to the extent that any evidence at all that the policy response is gaining some kind of traction will come as a relief to the market. For now GREED & fear will maintain the China overweight in the relative-return portfolio. · GREED & fear is still of the view that the odds favour more of a relief rally than a renewed collapse in the S&P500, though GREED & fear would be more confident in saying this if the new administration was about to take office next week. Policy vacuums are dangerous and the market desperately wants to be sent a clear signal of where policy in the Obama administration will be heading. Still Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke continues to do his bit on the monetary policy front. · The negative feature about the recent rise in the S&P500, and the related smaller rise in the MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan index, is that it has occurred in weakening volume. The weak volume reflects the reality that no one is in any hurry to make aggressive bets on stocks. Indeed in the long-only mutual fund space the risk is of more redemptions. The view here remains that the main catalyst for the extent of the spectacular decline in Asian equities this quarter has been forced selling by hedge funds. · It continues to be amazing how little has so far been redeemed in 2008 by Korean domestic equity funds. What appears to be happening here is that Korean investors are reacting to the rising risk aversion by first of all bringing their money back home. · Amidst the present near all consuming bearish sentiment in Taiwan, the progress on cross-straits relations has proceeded according to the schedule outlined broadly in CLSA's Capital Links report. At another time such developments would have triggered euphoria in the Taiwan stock market. That it is not happening now signals not only the extent of the negative focus on the global slowdown but also the collapse in sentiment towards the mainland economy. · India has many qualities. But security in public places is not one of them. The BJP has become more likely to emerge as the dominant party after the next Indian general election which has to be held before 22 May 2009. This is because the BJP had already been raising the issue of security prior to this latest in a series of violent terrorist attacks. · A stimulus package will now be forthcoming in India, which is likely to have an infrastructure element. There will also be more pressure on the RBI to ease monetary policy further. A military attack on Pakistan, however, would seem unlikely in the extreme. · GREED & fear hears that formerly affluent mortgage brokers in Britain are selling their client lists to so-called "debt enablers". These service providers are in the potentially hugely scaleable business of putting hopelessly indebted British consumers into contact with lawyers who may be able to get their debts written off. · The result could be bad news for banks in terms of an avalanche of claims from debtors seeking to get credit card and other consumer related debt written off. But this in turn will be bad news for the British taxpayers assuming, as seems very likely, that prominent British banks end up being fully nationalised.