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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stoctrash who wrote (10829)	12/7/2008 11:13:30 PM
From: John Pitera	1 Recommendation Respond to of 33421

Thanks R, we were a couple bucks early in calling to top in crude this summer. I was thinking I could magically call the top at 134.... went to 147.80 on July 2nd, but we are 100 bucks lower now. And I get my fair share of stuff just wrong, but I was one of the most foaming at the mouth Crude bulls while oil was going up from 70. I finally realized that I was getting a little too carried away, and when every day Drudge and the media had major headlines that crude was up 1 more buck from 122 to 123 and that went on for a week to 10 days, you know the psychology of a top is building. For those paying attention and Drudge is a good "Zeitgeist" for sentiment on some of this stuff, Crude dipped below $50 3 different times over a week or more and you kept seeing the provocative headline... Crude below 50..... Ya big deal it was 3 days ago, Great lesson in psychology of how the media and mass psychology can make it seem worse and worse when not much has happened... now crude has cracked down nicely below 50. My next post is going to be one showing where Bloomberg has caught up with my analysis from a couple of days ago about the extreme Contango Nature of Crude and the meaning of it. John