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Strategies & Market Trends : Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: da_cheif™ who wrote (36593)	12/7/2008 6:05:12 PM
From: mattstats	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206948

Good point chief. Problem with infrastructure projects is they wont kick into gear for years. There's a long lead time to get these thing going...being government run and all. Velocity is on the slide. Yet you're boolish. What is your short term catalyst to make a case for a rally?

To: da_cheif™ who wrote (36593)	12/7/2008 8:14:48 PM
From: chartliner	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206948

Zoropb on Globalization Adjustments I cannot remember a bear market ending on a Friday since I been watching the type or my historical work so lets throw out the 28th (Oct?) of 2011. End of October is the area which would likely be a Thursday 27th or running to the first of Nov a Tuesday. When I posted in 2002 that we would see the October low cracked and then some down the road my original work then said 2010-2011 for a low. Whether this is it before a new bull market remains to be seen. I do not think it will be in the sense we go to inflation adjusted highs. At best we go sideways for several decades if not longer. KEY ISSUE: What we are in as I wrote back in 2002 coming for this decade probably several more is a shift of power from west to east. I did biz in China back in 1992-2001 and is when I first said to friends this is coming. Until a near equilibrium of wages between Chinese/India/Brazil per capita and US Euro per capita is reached US and Euro will continue to decline it's standard of living. So therefore As I mentioned we will trade sideways to down until this occurs on a grand scale. I also discussed with Larry Katz back in 2003 (btw Larry you around?) that food and farming will be huge in this coming decade due to the convergence of factors coming together and now it is even clearer. My only fear when we chatted back then was that World Wars come out of the problems facing us with the food issue down the road. If I ever wanted to be wrong is on this call. I just noticed Gerald Celente of www.trendsresearch.com (predicting de-industrialization of the USA and food riots etc. within 4 years) came out with something similar to what I wrote back in 2003 Interesting but not happy as he is pretty darn good.

To: da_cheif™ who wrote (36593)	12/8/2008 1:25:40 AM
From: catflu2™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206948

seems more like grasping at straws to me but wdfdik? its funny to hear a politician in the federal government talk about efficiency in an industry....on one hand then about sweeping gov't programs to "create" jobs. It takes 1/100th the number of people to build a road as it it did in 1950. My buddy is an engineer for a company that makes heaters for concrete and road building.He thinks its a great idea but as far as the number of jobs they can invent...questionable. Its just payolla for the you-know-who in chicago. Giving the auto company loans based on a plan to presented by executives out of one side of the mouth- then demanding their removal. Insane, Its killing the messenger no? Hospitals. I don't have a take on that one but the one doctor i know sez they are in bad shape financially most of em and it is not an infrastructure problem. Nope.cheap oil and lower taxes. Thats a trillion a year. Then regulate and revise the credit rating system. In a leveraged economy if you remove ten percent of producing individuals that is about all it takes to blow the hydrogen filled dirigible.which is what is unfolding. 15 percent tax on economy doing 17 trillion would be better than 40 percent at 5...multiplied by five years.auto sales are down 40 percent....so is the gdp at retail. except for wal-mart but all that money is going to china. I don't think any of that has anything to do with the stock market. maybe it all is just a cycle but my gut feeling is that there are structural impediments in the system that are dinosaurs from the past.

To: da_cheif™ who wrote (36593)	12/8/2008 6:04:43 AM
From: chartliner	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206948

In the 1930's Don, that was the point Armstrong made is that the dollar was fixed to gold, so they could not print many dollars, now that restriction does not exist, so they can just keep printing and inflating their way out of the down turn. That is what Armstrong wrote in the ninties anyways. In his latest article though he seemed to be open to the idea of dow 3600 if confidence turns back to government ... for example Obama's infrastucture public works spending. We are in Armstrong's 51.6 year confidence in private markets cycle though, so confidence should stay with the private sector until 2032 according to his model and that would argue the dow goes to 35,000 which is in line with your view of the 'Mother of All Bull Markets'. Funny thing about that is Mike Campbell was once interviewing James Dines and Campbell got it confused who said 'The Mother of All Bull Markets', he thought Dines had said it and Dines replied, well errr...yes. He just let is pass as though he had said it in the past which he had not.