Yet Another Round of Semi Estimates Cuts
by: Eric Savitz December 08, 2008 | about stocks: BRCM / INTC / MU / NSM / NVDA / PMCS / SLAB / TXN
Eric Savitz
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Wall Street’s semiconductor analysts are at it again this morning: cutting their estimates on many of the industry’s largest players. Monday’s reductions come ahead of two key pieces of news coming this afternoon: an earnings report from National Semiconductor (NSM) and a mid-quarter update from Texas Instruments (TXN). There are widespread expectations that both companies will have grim commentary on the state of the industry.
Here’s a roundup of some of Monday’s cuts:
* Piper Jaffray’s Auguste Richard cut his numbers on Intel (INTC), noting that “turns business has continued to weaken for most companies into early December. He notes that U.S.-based manufacturers are shutting down for 2-4 weeks this quarter, with 2-4 week shutdowns likely in Q1 for Asian players. He sees industry growth in 2009 flat to down 10%. For INTC, he now sees ‘09 EPS of 90 cents, down from $1.10; for 2010 he goes to $1.45, from $1.65. He maintains a Buy rating and $18 price target on the stock.
* Citigroup’s Glen Yeung Monday morning cut estimates and target prices on both Intel and Nvidia (NVDA), but repeated his Buy ratings on the stocks, asserting that “any redeployment of cash back into technology stocks will favor chip names.” For INTC, he now sees $1.08 in 2008, down from $1.12, with 2009 EPS of 83 cents, down from 97 cents. His target goes to $16, from $17. For NVDA, he cuts ‘08 to 52 cents from 53 cents, and ‘09 to 35 cents, from 43 cents. His target is now $10.50, down from $11.
* J.P. Morgan’s Christopher Danely cut numbers Monday on Texas Instruments, “due to the global recession.” For 2008, he now sees $1.59, down from $1.62. For 2009, he goes to 97 cents, from $1.25. For Q4, he goes to 29 cents, from 32 cents. He says that the company’s wireless business, which was 27% of Q3 revenue, is tracking well below expectations. (That would be consistent with recent warnings from both Skyworks and RF Micro.) He remains Neutral on the stock.
* Stifel Nicolas analyst Cody Acree cuts estimates on Intel (INTC) as well; he now sees Q4 EPS of 20 cents, down from 23 cents; for ‘09 he goes to 83 cents, from $1.03, and his target is now $17, down from $20. Acree also lowered numbers on Broadcom (BRCM), Texas Instruments (TXN), Silicon Labs (SLAB) and PMC Sierra (PMCS). For BRCM, his Q4 estimate is now 38 cents, down from 44 cents; for ‘09, $1.25, from $1.44; his target is now $20, down from $26. For TXN, Q4 goes to 32 cents, from 33 cents; ‘09 to $1.31, from $1.53; and his target to $20, from $26. For PMCS, Q4 goes to 9 cents from 11 cents; ‘09 to 40 cents from 50 cents; and his target to $7, from $10. For SLAB, he goes to 39 cents from 44 cents for Q4; for ‘09, to $1.56 from $1.86.
* FTN Midwest’s JoAnne Feeney cut numbers Monday on both Texas Instruments and Linear Technology. For TXN, she goes to 28 cents from 34 cents for Q4, and to $1.19 from $1.63 for 2009. For LLTC, she goes to 32 cents from 38 cents for FY Q2 ending December; for the June 2009 fiscal year, she goes to $1.35, from $1.59, and for FY 2010 she now sees $1.54, down from $1.68.
* Goldman Sachs chip analyst James Covello has resumed coverage of Micron Technology (MU) with a Sell rating and a $1.80 price target, asserting that “Micron’s losses and balance sheet concerns will prevent the stock from moving meaningfully higher in the next 6 to 9 months.” For FY 2009, he now sees the company losing $2.33 a share, versus $1.68 previously. For FY 2010, his loss estimate widens to $1.89, from 73 cents For FY 2011, he now sees a loss of 99 cents, versus a profit of 15 cents previously. Meanwhile, Covello expects Texas Instruments to reduce guidance this afternoon, while guidance from National Semi is likely to be “very weak.” |
