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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brent D. Beal who wrote (5170)	10/23/1997 8:28:00 AM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

I'm enjoying this thread more and more. Asia doesn't have computers, so no one will sign up with AOL. But, everyone in Asia has a beautiful new WebTV!!!! C'mon...no AOL, and no WebTV for now. If anything, AOL will expand out there first - at least it has an international presence. As for earnings, we all won't have to wait that long. I'm sure if they are fantastic, bears will say things like "about time...watch out another restatement...one shot deal...whatever...AOL still sucks...etc , etc" If it doesn't beat estimates there will be about 100 bear posts in a row. And if AOL doesn't - then everyone holding a short position or puts will be grinning ear to ear. Earnings are already priced into the stock...the runup should mean that earnings will come in fine. Question is will AOL beat the whisper? Don't try and fight the tape.... S.

To: Brent D. Beal who wrote (5170)	10/23/1997 10:34:00 AM
From: IKM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

I've been a lurker, but today I've shorted the stock. I've been looking for a hedge for my other positions and this is it. I just figure at this point the upside/downside evaluation says sell. I'm actually betting more on the market than on AOL, but believe that if we take a tumble in the market, AOL will move further and faster than others. What's been happening in Asia has been disconcerting. I keep asking myself, "Where is the linkage that with hindsight will seem so obvious?" I don't want to be kicking myself for not doing this a few months from now, so I'll forego some upside in my total portfolio to hedge against the downside. BTW, one of my major long bets is on UMG, a major player in cable modem access. As their customer numbers start to climb, punters on this stock will begin to realize that success of HFC-based providers means AOL's market share will erode from the high end, and potentially very rapidly.