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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jim McMannis who wrote (170903)12/12/2008 1:52:23 PM
From: Think4YourselfRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
"Suppliers will still supply regardless, before or after BK adjustments."

This is new information for me. Do you have a link or are you making assumptions? I am hearing numerous suppliers are on the verge of closing due to a lack of funds to keep operating.

There may be ripples in the supplier pipelines due to GM's January closures. Billions of dollars worth of parts are suddenly not needed. People not needed to mine/refine raw materials, people not needed to make them, people not needed to ship them, people not needed to assemble them.



To: Jim McMannis who wrote (170903)12/12/2008 2:03:06 PM
From: butschi2Respond to of 306849
 
I can't believe you guys are falling for all the hoopla panic propaganda. Suppliers will still supply regardless, before or after BK adjustments. Right now the Unions still want their cake. And you to eat it.

Suppliers perhaps wont get goverment assisted DIP-Financing after GM/Chrysler stop paying their supplier credit and they themselves have no option but Ch11. Banks wont extend oftern needed credit to parts suppliers any more, because of thin margin, falling sales and no trust in Big Three or suppliers paying the delivered parts.

Already delivered parts and bills will perhaps get payed nothing or a small fraction after years until the CH11 proceedings are settled.

The small suppliers will just close shop and the epicenter will be the US because of many american suppliers beeing haveing a huge share of sales ot Big Three. Because they wont get money from their banks to operate and money to pay for the losses from Suppliers/GM not paying their trade credit.

Going from paying 90 days late to upfront will have huge consequences in the supply chain, kill the weakest suppliers and cost a lot of money because of supplier credit will be last in the chain getting payed in CH11 or Ch7.

GM would need huge DIP-Financing and the supply chain will need huge financing by going from late payment to upfront payments because of trust failing.



To: Jim McMannis who wrote (170903)12/12/2008 8:01:05 PM
From: tejekRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
I can't believe you guys are falling for all the hoopla panic propaganda.

That's what they said about LEH and we're still paying for that mistake. You've seen what an overbuilt housing market has done to FLA......imagine a much more serious crashing of the auto industry. Jim, you talk from your book......alot.....no matter the problem. However, one size does not fit all. I am not happy giving money to GM. Everything I know about the company is that they have brought this on themselves...and not the union, but mgmt. They had this enormous market share that they treated like a savings account, taking a little from it each year, and managed to squander it over two decades. Their BOD saw no evil, spoke no evil, heard no evil....in other words, they were useless. Meanwhile, one fatcat CEO after another came trotting through the doors with an enormous salary and significant golden parachute. Truly, they don't deserve any help.

At the same time, this is a significant industry that took over a 100 years to develop. No matter what anyone says, its irreplaceable. And they occupy a corner of the country that can least afford the loss of jobs. You don't abandon your neighbors in a time of need and this country did not abandon FLA in its time of need. And so we can't abandon the Midwest in its time of need. In my mind, there is no other option.

Suppliers will still supply regardless, before or after BK adjustments. Right now the Unions still want their cake. And you to eat it.

You're not listening.....many suppliers will go under with GM.